The Shepherd of Banbury's Rules to Judge of the Changes of the Weather, Grounded on Forty Years' Experience Part 3

XIX.

_If two such Clouds arise, one on either Hand_, it is Time to make haste to shelter.

AS this Observation is of the same Nature with the former, we shall continue our Remarks. The Reason why it seldom thunders in Winter is, because the exterior Parts of the Earth are so contracted by the cold Snow and Ice, that Sulphur cannot perspire in any great Quant.i.ties, but as soon as the Earth begins to be opened by the Sun in the Spring, something expires in the Month of _April_ which takes Fire. But by the greater Heat of the Sun penetrating deeper into the Earth, the Cortex is more opened in _May_, and now there is a more copious Expiration of the fulminating Matter, and whatever was collected and shut up in Winter, is now released and s.n.a.t.c.hed up in the Air, and thence proceeds the most frequent Thunders in the Month of _May_, and chiefly when a very hot Day or two has gone before. A less Quant.i.ty of the same Matter remains in the upper Cortex of the Earth for the Month of _June_, but in the mean Time a Stock arises out of the deeper Bowels of the Earth, which is attenuated and prepared, so that by the very fervent Heat of _July_ it is elevated, as it were in heaps, and set on Fire. Hence Thunder is as frequent in _July_ as in _May_. And the Heat decreasing in the succeeding Months, the Exhalation of the fulminating Matter out of the Earth is more sparing, and thence, also, the thunder is less frequent, till in October, and the other winter months, the earth is bound up with us, and hardly expires any more. Hence we see why it very seldom thunders when the northerly winds blow; for these winds constringe the earth with their cold, and so hinder the fulminating matter from bursting forth; and when they are burst forth and floating in the air, they hinder their effervency. But on the contrary, when the warm and moist south winds blow, which open every thing, the earth likewise is opened, and abundance of fulminating matter is expired and ascends on high, which is there easily inflamed.

AS the flame runs very swiftly, it seems to carry along with it particles, which it could not so easily set on fire, and when any of these particles are drawn together, and heated to a certain degree, they at last take fire, with a sudden and great explosion, and thereby produce what we call a thunder Clap. Now, though this be only a single sound, yet it is often heard in the form of a great murmuring noise of a long continuance; sometimes for thirty or forty seconds, because of its various repercussions by the clouds and terrestrial obstacles.

Hence it is, that in vales, which are surrounded by mountains of a different Height, there is a terrible and long continued Bellowing of thunder Claps. Whereas for one Explosion it has been observed that there is but one Clap. Yet however if the Flame set Fire to two, three, or more fulmineous Tracts, each of them at last will end in a Clap, and thus several Sounds may be heard together, or quickly succeeding one another.

XX.

_If you see a Cloud rise against the Wind or side Wind, when that Cloud comes up to you, the Wind will blow the same Way that the Cloud came. And the same Rule holds of a clear Place, when all the Sky is equally thick, except one clear Edge._

THIS seems to arise from hence, that Wind being nothing more than Air in motion, the Effects of it first discover themselves above, and actually drive such Clouds before them. This was long ago observed by _Pliny_. When Clouds, says he, float about in a serene Sky, from whatever Quarter they come, you may expect Winds. If they are collected together in one Place, they will be dispersed by the approach of the Sun. If these Clouds come from the North East, they denote Winds; if from the South great Rains. But let them come from what Quarter they will, if you see them driving thus about Sunset, they are sure signs of an approaching Tempest.

IF the Clouds look dusky, or of a tarnish silver Colour, and move very slowly, it is a Sign of Hail. But to speak more plainly, those very Clouds are laden with Hail, which if there be a Mixture of Blue in the Clouds will be small, but if very yellow, large. Small scattering Clouds that fly very high, especially, from the South West, denote Whirlwinds. The shooting of fallen Stars through them, is a Sign of Thunder. We meet with many Observations of this sort in our old Writers on Husbandry, and we have abundance of Proverbs relating to this Subject which are worth observing, and the rather, because most of them are not peculiar to our Language only, but common to us with many of our Neighbours. It is the Remark of Lord _Bacon_, and a very judicious Remark too, that Proverbs are the Philosophy of the common People, that is to say, they are trite Remarks founded in Truth, and fitted for Memory. I must confess that there are some of them that seem either false, or of no great Consequence, but then I am apt to suspect, that by various Accidents we have lost their true Meaning, or else, that in length of Time, they have been altered and corrupted, till they have little or no meaning at all.

I cannot help taking Notice in Regard to the Rule before us, that Captain _Dampier_ tells us in the _East-Indies_, they have always Notice of a Tuffoon by the Skies being first clear and calm, and then a small white Cloud hanging precisely in the Point from whence the Storm comes, where he observes that it remains sometimes twelve Hours or more, and adds, that as soon as it begins to move, the Wind presently follows it. When Sir _John Bury_, who died an _English_ Admiral, had the Command of a small Frigate in the _West-Indies_, he escaped a Hurricane in the _Leward_ Islands by taking the Advice of a poor Negro, who shewed him a small white Cloud at a Distance, and a.s.sured him that when it came to the _Zenith_, the Hurricane would infallibly begin, as indeed it did.

XXI.

_Sudden Rains never_ last long: _But when the Air grows thick by Degrees, and the Sun, Moon, and Stars s.h.i.+ne dimmer and dimmer, then it is like_ to rain six Hours usually.

RAIN is, properly speaking, a Mult.i.tude of small watery Drops, falling from the upper Air at different Seasons. When the upper Regions become cold of a sudden, the watery Clouds are condensed and fall in hasty Showers. It is observed that mountainous Countries have most Rain, and the Reason seems to be the Winds driving the Clouds against the Rocks and Hills, and thereby compressing them in such a Manner, that they are immediately dissolved, and fall as it were at once. This is the Reason that in _Lancas.h.i.+re_ there falls twice as much Rain as in _Ess.e.x_, and it is probably from the same Cause, that in the Ocean, over-against the mountainous Coast of _Guinea_, showers sometimes fall as it were by Pailfuls.

THIS Observation of our Shepherd is very just and reasonable, and I dare say will hardly ever fail such as observe it. The Dimness of the Stars and other heavenly Bodies, is one of the surest Signs of very rainy Weather. It is likewise to be observed that when the Stars look bigger than usual, and are pale and dull and without Rays, this undoubtedly indicates that the Clouds are condensing into Rain, which will very soon fall; and it has been observed that when the Air grows thick by Degrees, and the Light of the Sun lessens so as not to be discerned at all, and again when the Moon or Stars have the same Appearances, a continued Rain for at least six Hours is sure to follow.

TO be the better informed in such Cases, it is best to have Recourse to a variety of Signs, for it is not only the Clouds and Sky, or the Sun, Moon, and Stars, that gives us previous Notice of rainy Weather, but almost every Thing in the Creation, and Vegetables particularly. As for Instance, the Pimpernel, which is a very common flower, shuts itself up extremely close against rainy Weather. In like manner the Trefoil swells in the Stalk against Rain, so that it stands up very stiff, but the Leaves droop and hang down. Even the most solid Bodies are affected by this Change of the Atmosphere, for Stones seem to sweat, and Wood swells, the Air driving the moist Particles with which it is filled into the Pores of dry Wood especially, makes it swell prodigiously, and this is the Reason the Doors and Windows are hard to shut in rainy Weather.

THIS is so true, that there has been a Method found of dividing Mill-stones by the mere Force of the Air, which is done in this Manner.

They divide a Block of this kind of Stone as big as a large rolling Stone, into as many Parts as they design to make Millstones, and in the Circles where this Block is to be divided, they pierce several Holes, which they fill with allow Wood dried in an Oven, and expose the Stone to the Air, in moist Weather; when the Wood swells to such a Degree as to split the Stone as effectually, as if it was by iron Wedges driven by Sledge-Hammers. This curious and extraordinary Method of dividing Mill-stones is related by the famous Mr. _Ozanam_ of his own Knowledge.

XXII.

_If it begin to Rain from the South, with a high Wind for two or three Hours, and the Wind falls, but the Rain continues_, it is like to rain twelve Hours or more, and does usually rain till a strong North Wind clears the Air. _These long Rains seldom hold above twelve Hours, or happen above_ once a Year.

THIS depends entirely upon Observation, and Experience shews us that whenever the Wind falls, Rain follows. It has been likewise observed, that when the Wind changes often there fall heavy Rains. All these Alterations in the Atmosphere, are less observed by Men than by Animals, for two Reasons. The first is, that we live much within Doors, by which they are less obvious to us, and it is for this Reason that the Husbandman, Seamen, Fishermen, but above all Shepherds, who are more in the open Air than other Men, are better acquainted with, and more able to distinguish and judge of the Signs of the Alteration of the Weather, than those who live altogether within Doors, or go out but seldom. Another Reason is our having so many Things to mind, which takes off our Thoughts, and renders us less attentive to the Signals which would give up Notice of such Alterations. It is for this Reason that we ought to serve ourselves of that Sort of Instinct which Nature has given to other Animals, and which as it is a Gift of Nature, is in a Manner infallible.

THUS if small Birds prune themselves and duck and make a shew of was.h.i.+ng. If Crows make a great Noise in the Evening, if Geese gaggle more than usual, these are all Signs of Rain, because these Animals love wet Weather, and rejoice at the approach of it. On the other Hand, if Oxen lie on their Right Sides, look towards the South, and lick their Hoofs, if Cows look up in the Air, and snuff it, if a.s.ses bray violently, and if c.o.c.ks crow at unusual Hours, but especially when a Hen and Chickens crowd into the House, these are sure Signs of Rain.

INSECTS also are very sensible of such Changes of Weather. Frogs croak more than ordinary, Worms creep out of the Ground, Moles throw up more Earth than usual, because such Weather is more agreeable to them; Hornets, Wasps, and Gnats, sting more frequently against wet Weather than in fair. Spiders are restless and uneasy, and frequently drop from the Wall, the humid Air getting into their Webs and making them heavy.

But the surest and most certain Sign is taken from Bees, which are more incommoded by Rain than almost any other Creatures, and therefore, as soon as the Air begins to grow heavy, and the Vapours to condense, they will not fly from their Hives, but either remain in them all Day, or else fly but to a small Distance.

XXIII.

_If it begins to rain an Hour or two before Sun-rising, it is like to be fair_ before Noon, and so continue that Day, _but if the Rain begin an Hour or two after Sun-rising, it is like_ to Rain all that Day, _except the Rainbow be seen before it rains_.

THIS is a short, clear, and easy Observation, and therefore I shall not dwell long upon it, but rather entertain the Reader with a few Observations on the Rainbow. Whenever it appears, things are thus circ.u.mstanced. The Spectator has the Sun behind him, and Clouds with the Bow in them before him. Sometimes there are two and even three Bows seen, but this is very rare. The Colours in the Bow are ranged in this Order, _viz._ Violet, Purple, Blue, Green, Yellow, Orange, Red. After a long Drought the Bow is a certain Sign of Rain, if after much Wet fair Weather. If the Green be large and bright it is a Sign of Rain, but if the Red be the strongest Colour, then it denotes Wind and Rain together. If the Bow breaks up all at once there will follow serene and settled Weather. If the Bow be seen in the Morning small Rain will follow. If at Noon, settled and heavy Rains; if at Night, fair Weather.

The Appearance of two or three Rainbows shews fair Weather for the present, but settled and heavy Rains in two or three Days' Time.

LUNAR Rainbows are sometimes, but very seldom seen, they are extremely beautiful, but much less than those that appear in the Day time, and a yellow, or rather a straw Colour prevails most. As they happen so seldom, they cannot well be reckoned amongst the Signs of Weather. But now, after speaking of so many different Methods of judging when rainy Weather will be of a short or long Continuance: Give me leave to describe two or three Instruments easily made, which will shew the Alterations of the Weather certainly, constantly, and early enough for most Uses.

THERE were some Years ago a Sort of Toys sold, with a Man and a Woman so fixed before the Door of a House, that at the Approach of wet Weather the Woman entered it, and when the Weather grew fair the Man.

This was done by the Help of a Bit of Catgut, which shrinks in wet Weather, and stretches again when it is fair. This appears better by a Line and Plummet, especially if the Line be made of good Whipcord, that is well dried, for then if it be hung against a Wainscot, and a Line drawn under it exactly where the Plummet reaches, in very moderate Weather it will be found to rise above it before Rain, and to sink below when the Weather is like to become fair; but the best Instrument of all is a good Pair of Scales, in one of which let there be a bra.s.s Weight of a Pound, and in the other a Pound of Salt, or of Salt-Petre well dried, a Stand being placed under the Scale, so as to hinder its falling too low. When it is inclined to rain the Salt will swell, and sink the Scale, when the Weather is growing fair, the bra.s.s Weight will regain its Ascendancy.

XXIV.

SPRING and SUMMER. _If the last eighteen Days of_ February _and ten Days of_ March _be for the most part_ rainy, _then the_ Spring and Summer _Quarters are like to be so too: and I never knew_ a great Drought _but it entered_ in that Season.

IT is easy to discover by Observation whether this Rule be well or ill founded, that is to say, whether our Shepherd's Observation will serve for other Places or not, and where it will serve and where not. But it may not be amiss to remark that it is highly probable, or rather absolutely certain, that the Weather in one Season of the Year determines the Weather in another. For instance, if there be a rainy Winter then the Autumn will be dry, if a dry Spring, then a rainy Winter. Our Forefathers had abundance of odd Sayings upon this Subject, and some Proverbs for every Month in the Year, but I doubt they were indifferently founded, however there can be no Harm in observing them, in order to discover whether there be any thing in them or not.

_Janiveer_ freeze the Pot by the Fire

If the Gra.s.s grow in _Janiveer_ It grows the worse for't all the Year.

The _Welchman_ had rather see his Dam on the Bier Than to see a fair _Februeer_.

_March_ Wind and _May_ Sun Make Clothes white and Maids Dun.

When _April_ blows his Horn It's good both for Hay and Corn.

An _April_ Flood Carries away the Frog and her Brood.

A cold _May_ and a windy Makes a full Barn and a Findy.

A _May_ Flood never did good.

A Swarm of Bees in _May_ Is worth a Load of Hay.

But a Swarm in _July_ Is not worth a Fly, _&c._

XXV.

WINTER. _If the latter End of_ October _and Beginning of_ November _be for the most Part warm and rainy, then_ January _and_ February are like to be frosty and cold, _except after a very dry Summer_.

IT is very evident, supposing this Observation to be true, as I am pretty confident it is, that the Reason of it is to be sought in that Balance of the Weather which Providence has established. There is not only a Time to sow, and a Time to reap, but there is a Time also for dry and a Time for wet Weather, and if these do not happen at proper Seasons, they will certainly happen at other Seasons; for not only the Wisdom of Philosophers hath discerned, but their Experiments and Observations have put it out of doubt, that there is a certain Rule or Proportion observed between wet Weather and dry in every Country, so that it is nearly the same in every annual Revolution, neither is wet and dry Weather only, but hot and cold, open and frost, that are thus regulated, from whence we see, that when the Scripture represents to us G.o.d's settling Things by Weight and Measure, it speaks not only elegantly, but exactly. For we do not mean by Providence any extraordinary or supernatural Interposition of almighty Power, but the constant and settled Order established by the Will of that almighty Being which we commonly call Nature.

THERE is nothing easier than for vulgar Understandings to mistake the Meaning of Words, and by a Superst.i.tion natural to weak Minds convert, what they imperfectly understand into Notions that perplex and confound them. Hence it proceeds that in common Conversation one hears People speak of Nature as of a Being, or a Kind of subordinate Deity, whereas in Reality the true Meaning of Nature is, that Order or Law which G.o.d has established in the Universe, and the Knowledge of Nature is no more than the Light we acquire by Study into the Connexion of those Laws. In this Sense Experience is a Kind of Revelation, that is to say, it is a Sort of Knowledge that comes to us from without, and is infallible in itself, we may indeed go on wrong and deceive ourselves in the Arguments we raise from it, but the Knowledge grounded upon Experiments never varies.

THIS is sufficient to shew us how much wiser a Thing it is to trust this Sort of experimental Knowledge, then to put any Faith in that Kind of idle Science which amused our Forefathers, and enabled Almanac Makers to delude and mislead them. It is true we use the Luminaries as well as they, but then we use them in a rational Manner, and do not pretend to impose this or that Sign upon other People, but barely set down our own Observations, which are to be examined and verified by the Experience of those to whom they are submitted. The Astrologer on the other Hand insists on what are not in Nature; the twelve Houses are a mere Invention, and so are all the Properties ascribed to the celestial Signs, and to the Planets; mere Dreams and Fictions devised by the Cunning to cheat and impose upon the Ignorant, and which had been long ago exploded if People had brought them to the only Test of which they are capable, I mean that of Experience; with which they never did, never will, and indeed never can agree: whereas the Rules given by our Shepherd, are such as we have shewn, suit perfectly well with Remarks of other studious Persons in all Ages.

XXVI.

_If_ October _and_ November _be Snow and Frost, then_ January _and_ February _are like to be_ open _and mild_.

AS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we need not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with my former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to study Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon Experiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the Truth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by the Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what we behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with the Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order to explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows that not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a constant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of the Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living Creatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of Rats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River _Nile_, by the Heat of the Sun in _Egypt_, which might very well pa.s.s for Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the like Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in which we behold Thousands of living Creatures.

AN _Italian_ Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a simple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a gla.s.s Vessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it putrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how careful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment was made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in putrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun can no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By the same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out a Mult.i.tude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for granted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account for them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom, and encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and foolish Notions.