Principles of Political Economy Part 32

=======================================+=============+=========== |_Marriages_ |_Children_ | _per annum_ |_on every_ | _on every_ | _100_ | _10,000_ |_Marriages_ |_inhabitants_| ---------------------------------------+-------------+-----------

In the purely Flemish provinces | | of Belgium | 128 | 481 In the purely Wallonic provinces | | of Belgium | 139 | 448 In the mixed provinces of Belgium | 152 | 425 In Holland | 148 | 476 In Lombardy | 166 | 489 In Bohemia | 173 | 413 In the kingdom of Saxony | 170 | 410 =======================================+=============+===========]

[Footnote 239-5: Compare _Horn_, Bevolkerungswissenschaftliche Studien, I, 162 ff., 191, 252 ff. In most countries, there is a much larger number of children to a marriage in the rural districts than in the cities; but at the same time, marriages are much less frequent there. In Saxony, however, where the cities show a greater marital productiveness, the rural districts present a large number of marriages. Of the 10 countries compared by _Wappaus_, II, 481 ff., only Prussia and Schleswig are exceptions to the rule.]

SECTION CCXL.

INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASE OF THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE.

The s.e.xual instinct and the love for children are incentives of such universality and power, that an increase of the means of subsistence is uniformly followed by an increase in the numbers of mankind. _Partout, ou deux personnes peuvent vivre commodement, il se fait un mariage._ (_Montesquieu._) Thus after a good harvest, the number of marriages and births is wont to considerably increase; and conversely to diminish after bad harvests.[240-1] [240-2] [240-3] In the former case, it is rather hope than actual possession which const.i.tutes the incentive to the founding of new families. Hence the greatest increase is not found in connection with the absolutely lowest price of corn, but with those prices which present the most striking contrast to those of a previous bad year.[240-4]

The introduction of the potato has promoted the rapid increase of population in most countries. Thus, the population of Ireland in 1695, was only 1,034,000; in 1654, when the cultivation of the potato became somewhat more common it was 2,372,000; in 1805, 5,395,000; in 1823, 6,801,827; in 1841, 8,175,000. In 1851, after the fearful spread of the potato-rot it fell again to 6,515,000.[240-5] In general, every new or increasing branch of industry, as soon as it yields a real net product is wont to invite an increase of population. Machines, however, have not this effect only when they operate to produce rather a more unequal division of the national income than an absolute increase of that income.[240-6]

[Footnote 240-1: That rich food directly increased prolificacy is proved from the fact that, for instance, our domestic animals are much more prolific than wild ones of the same species. Compare _Villerme_, in the Journ. des Economistes VI, 400 ff. The months richest in conceptions fall universally in the spring, and again in the pleasant season immediately following the harvest. On the other hand, during the seasons of fast in the Catholic church the number of cases of conception is below the average. (Jour. des Econ., 1857, 808).]

[Footnote 240-2: Thus the annual mean number of marriages amounted to:

============================================= | _Between 1841_ | _In 1847_ | _and 1850._ | _alone._ --------------+----------------+------------- In Saxony, | 15,505 | 14,220 In Holland, | 22,352 | 19,280 In Belgium, | 28,968 | 24,145 In France, | 280,330 | 249,797 =============================================

_Horn_, loc. cit. I, 167. In the governmental district (_Regierungsbezirke_) of Dusseldorf, there was in the years of scarcity, 1817 and 1818, one marriage for every 134 and 137 souls; on the other hand, in 1834 and 1835, in every 103 and 105. (_Viebahn_, I, 120 seq.) In England, the variations in the yearly price of corn are reflected in the variations in the number of yearly marriages. Thus, in 1800, 114 s.h.i.+llings per quarter; 1801, 122 s.h.i.+llings; 1802 (Peace of Amiens), 70 s.h.i.+llings; 1803, 58 s.h.i.+llings. The number of marriages in the four years respectively was 69,851, 67,288, 90,396, 94,379. (_Porter_, Progress of the Nation, III, ch.

14, 453.)

Similarly in Germany, in 1851, the conclusion of peace increased the number of marriages, and the scarcity of 1817 diminished it. In Prussia, in 1816, there was one marriage for every 88.1 of the population; in 1828, for every 121.4; in 1834 (origin of the great Zollverein), for every 104; in 1855, for every 136.4; in 1858 (hope of a new era), in every 105.9. (_v. Viebahn_, Statistik des Zollvereins II, 206.)

In Austria, the price of rye was:

============================================== | _Per Metze._ | _No. of_ | | _Marriages._ ----------+--------------+-------------------- In 1851, | 2.47 florins | 336,800 In 1852, | 2.11 " | 316,800 In 1853, | 3.38 " | 283,400 In 1854, | 4.36 " | 258,000 In 1855, | 4.43 " | 245,400 (_Czornig._) ==============================================

On Sweden, see Wargentin in _Malthus_, II, ch. 2.

The decreased number of births in consequence of a bad harvest, and _vice versa_, appears of course only during the following calendar year. Thus, in 1847, as compared with the average of the years 1844 and 1845, there were fewer children born in England by 4 per 1,000, in Saxony by 7 per 1,000, in Lombardy by 59, in France by 63, in Prussia by 82, in Belgium by 122, in Holland by 159 per 1,000. (_Horn_, I, 239 ff.) In Germany, the conscription-years corresponding to the scarcity time, 1816-17, gave a _minus_ of 25 per cent.

in many places below the average. (_Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 219.) In the case of marriage, the relative increase or decrease is still more characteristic, so far as our purpose is concerned, than the absolute increase or decrease. Thus in Belgium, for instance, against 1,000 marriages dissolved by death, there were, in 1846, only 971 new ones contracted, and in 1847 only 747; while in 1850 there were 1,500. The falling off in Flanders alone was still greater. Thus, in 1847, there were only 447 marriages contracted for 1,000 dissolved. (_Horn_, I, 170 ff.) However, _Berg_, using Sweden as an ill.u.s.tration, rightly calls attention to the fact, that the variations in the number of marriages and births is determined in part by the number of adults, that is, of the number of births 20 and more years before. Compare _Engel's_ Statist. Zeitschr., 1869, 7.]

[Footnote 240-3: Sometimes, a sudden increase in the frequency of marriages may have very accidental and transitory causes. Thus, for instance, in France in 1813, when the unmarried were so largely conscripted, the number of marriages rose to 387,000, whereas the average of the five previous years was 229,000. (_Bernouilli_, Populationistik, 103.)]

[Footnote 240-4: Thus, for instance, in nearly all countries affected by the movement of 1848, there were, during the last months of that year, an unusually large number of conceptions. (_Horn_., I, 241 seq.) According to _Dieterici_, Abh. der Berliner Akademie, 1855, 321 ff., there was one birth a year for the number of persons living.

======================================================== | _Ten years' average._ | _1849 alone._ ------------+----------------------------+-------------- In France, | 36.19 | 35.79 In Tuscany, | 24.42 | 22.82 In Saxony, | 24.51 | 23.08 In Prussia, | 25.5 | 23.62 ========================================================

The great majority of men at that time believed all they liked to believe.]

[Footnote 240-5: _Marshall_, Digest of all Accounts, I, 15.

_Porter_, I, ch. I, 9.]

[Footnote 240-6: _Wallace_, in this respect, places industry far behind agriculture. (On the Numbers of mankind in ancient and modern Times.) The county of Lancas.h.i.+re had, in 1760, that is shortly before the introduction of the great machine industry, 297,000 inhabitants; in 1801, 672,000; in 1831, 1,336,000; in 1861, 2,490,000. Saxony has, in almost every place, a relatively large number of births in proportion as in any locality, commerce and industry preponderate over agriculture, and _vice versa_. See _Engel_, Bewegung der Bevolkerung im K. Sachsen, 1854. But this should not be generalized into a universal law. For instance, Prussia and Posen have an average number of births greater than that of the Rhine country and Westphalia. (_v.

Viebahn_, Statistik des L. V, II, 222.)]

SECTION CCXLI.

EFFECT OF WARS ON POPULATION.

We may now understand why it is that only those wars which are accompanied by a diminution of the sources of the means of support decrease population. The loss in the numbers of mankind produced by wars, hards.h.i.+ps, etc., would, as a rule, be readily made up for by increased procreation.[241-1] Thus, for instance, in Holland, the long Spanish war permitted an increase of the population for the reason that the national wealth increased at the same time; while the short war with Cromwell, which curtailed commerce, caused 3,000 houses in Amsterdam alone to remain empty.[241-2] In England and Wales, the population increased during the most frightful war of modern times, from 8,540,000 in 1790, to over 12,000,000 in 1821; in France, from, probably, 26,000,000 or 27,000,000 in 1791, to 29,217,000 in 1817. England, indeed, was itself never the seat of war, and its commerce was increased by the war in some directions as much as it was diminished by it in others. France's own territory was devastated only in the first and in the last years of the war. But the Revolution had, on the whole, once the storms of the Reign of Terror were over, not only more equally divided the means of subsistence in France, but it had developed them in a higher degree.[241-3] [241-4]

It cannot even be unconditionally predicated of emigration, that it hinders the increase of population. As soon as people have begun to calculate upon emigration, as a resort for themselves in case of distress, or upon the emigration of others, by which they would be left a larger field for action at home, a number of marriages is contracted and a number of children born; which would otherwise not have been the case. Most men, especially when young and enamoured, hope for the realization of all their wishes. Favorable chances, open to a great number of men alike and which every one thinks himself competent to calculate, are commonly over-estimated by the majority.[241-5] (See -- 259.)

[Footnote 241-1: The war of 1870-71 cost Germany 44,890 lives. (Preuss. Statist. Ztschr., 1872, 293.) This number is not quite 20 per cent. of the excess of births (794,206) over deaths (563,065) in Prussia in the year 1865. On the other hand, in from 1856 to 1861 there were 10,000 cases of murder and manslaughter in all Europe, Turkey excepted.

(_Hausner_, Vergl. Statistik, I, 145.) About the end of the last century, it was estimated that about 1,000,000 children were born annually in France. (_Necker_, Administration des Finances, I, 256.) Of these, about 600,000 outlived their 18th year. (_Peuschet_, Essai de Statistique, 31.) There were, annually, about 220,000 marriages. Hence the number of the unmarried was increased annually by 80,000 young men, who, according to _Peucshet_ (32), amounted to over 1,450,000. According to this, the number of recruits, per annum, might amount to hundreds of thousands without causing any appreciable diminution in the number of births and marriages. Compare _Malthus_, Principle of Population, II, ch. 6. On the other hand, long continued wars have the effect of keeping the men physically strongest from marriage, and so to deteriorate the race.]

[Footnote 241-2: Richesse de Hollande, I, 149. During the Amsterdam commercial crisis, from 1795 to 1814, there were for every 4 births an average of 7 deaths. So that the population, in 1795, was still 217,000, and in 1815, only 180,000. (_Bickes_, Bewegung der Bevolkerung Anhang, 28.)]

[Footnote 241-3: On the other hand, the population of East Prussia, between 1807 and 1815 diminished 14 per cent. (_v.

Haxthausen_, Landl. Verfa.s.sung der Preuss. Monarchie, I, 93.) The battles of the Seven Years' War are said to have consumed 120,000 Russians, 140,000 Austrians, 200,000 Frenchmen, 160,000 Englishmen, Hanoverians, etc., 25,000 Swedes, 28,000 of the troops of the empire, and 180,000 Prussians. Yet the population of Prussia fell off 1,500,000.

(_Frederic_, uvres posthumes, IV, 414; Preuss. Gesch.

Friedrich's M., II, 349.) During the Thirty Years' War, the population of Bohemia fell from 3,000,000 to 780,000.

(_Mailath_, Gesch. von Oesterr, III, 455.) Wurttemberg, according to the military recruiting lists had a population, in 1622, of 300,000 inhabitants. (_Spittler_, Werke, XII, 34.) In 1641, the population was only 48,000; according to a promotion-speech of _J. B. Andrea_. But between 1628 and 1650, more than 58,000,000 florins were lost by war contributions, and about 60,000,000 florins by plunder; about 36,000 private houses were in ruins. (_Spittler_, Wurtt. Gesch., 254.) On Alsace, Freisingen and Gottingen, see _Londorp_, Bellum s.e.xenn., II, 563; _Zschocke_, Bayerische Geschichte, III, 302; _Spittler_, Hanov. Gesch., II, 37 ff., 114. On Germany generally, see _R. F. Hanser_, Deutschland nach dem dreissigjahrigen Kriege, 1862. However, many estimates of the diminution of the population are exaggerated, because it has not been considered that a great part of the men who disappeared in one place fled to another, for the time being more secure. Compare _Kius_ in _Hildebrand's_ Jahrb., 1870, I ff.

The population of Ma.s.sachusetts increased 8,310 yearly, before the War of Independence; during the war, only 1,161, although the enemy scarcely ever entered the country.

(_Ebeling_, Gesch. und Erdbeschreib. der V. Staaten I, 236.) Russia had a mortality during the war years, 1853-55, of 2,272,000, 2,148,000, and 2,541,000; in the years of peace previous, 2,000,000 at most.]

[Footnote 241-4: Besides the mere loss of men, war operates destructively on production, since it affects especially the most productive cla.s.ses as to age, while pestilence, famine, etc., carry off children, old people, and the feeble. Hence, a people's public economy recovers more readily from the last named misfortune than from war.]

[Footnote 241-5: Compare _Giov. Botero_, Della Cause della Grandezza della Citta, L. II, and Ragion di Stato, VIII, 95; where colonization is compared to the swarming of bees. _W.

Raleigh_, Discourse of War in general, Works VIII. 257 ff.

Similarly _Child_, Discourse of Trade, 371 ff. _Ustariz_, Teoria y Practica del Commercio, 1724, ch. 4. _Franklin_, Observations on the Increase of Mankind, which reminds one of the continued growth of polyps.]

SECTION CCXLII.

COUNTER TENDENCIES TO THE INCREASE OF POPULATION.

The extension of economic production is always a labor; the surrender of one's ordinary means of subsistence to new comers, a sacrifice; but, on the other hand, the procreation of children is a pleasure. Hence it seems to be incontestably true that the powers of increase of population, considered from an entirely sensuous point of view, tend to go beyond the bounds of the field of food. Malthus gave expression to this fact by saying that population had a tendency to increase in a geometrical progression, but the means of subsistence, even under the most favorable conditions, only in an arithmetical progression.[242-1]

If the word "tendency" be correctly understood in the sense in which Malthus employed it, so that the reality appears as the product of several and partly opposite tendencies,[242-2] the first half of his allegation can scarcely be contested.[242-3] If a father has three sons, and each of the three three in turn, the love of procreation and the power of procreation, all being in the normal condition of health, are precisely three times as great in the second generation as in the first, and nine times as great in the third, etc. The second half of Malthus's principle is more open to doubt. If it be true, as has been a.s.serted, that man's means of subsistence consist solely of animals and plants, and these, as well as man, increase in a geometrical ratio, and usually even with a much larger multiplier, yet it is here, surprisingly enough, overlooked that their natural increase is interrupted by the consumption of them by man. On the other hand, it is true that even raw material, by means of more skillful technic processes (-- 134, 157), and the values by which man enn.o.bles them, may always increase in a greater ratio than a merely arithmetical one. (-- 33).[242-4] But, that, in the long run, the means of subsistence should keep pace with the extreme of sensuous desire and of physiological power, is utterly incredible. Hence, the latter tendency is limited by others.

A. And indeed, firstly, by repressive counter-tendencies. As soon as there is a larger population in existence than can be supported, the surplus population must yield to a mournful necessity; in a favorable case, to that of emigration, but usually to hunger, disease and misery generally.

"The earth," says Sismondi, "again swallows the children she cannot support." It is the weakest especially who are elbowed off the bridge of life, over which we pa.s.s from birth to the normal death from old age, because there is not room enough on it for all. Hence the frightful mortality among the poorer cla.s.ses and in childhood. Now it is the absence of a healthy habitation,[242-5] or of proper clothing, or, in the case of children, of rational superintendence[242-6] which sows the germs of a thousand diseases; and now the absence of proper care, rest etc., which intensifies these diseases. Every bad harvest is wont, when its consequences are not alleviated by a high and healthy civilization, to increase mortality. (-- 246, 9). Thus, in Sweden, during the second half of the 18th century, the average yearly mortality was = 1:39-40. On the other hand, in the bad year 1771 = 1:35.7; 1772 = 1:26.7, and in 1773, as an after consequence, 1:19.3. In this last, although it was a fertile year, there were only 48 births to every 100 deaths.[242-7]

Among nations low down in civilization, the repressive counter tendency may a.s.sume a very violent character. How many cases of murder, human sacrifice, and even war, have been occasioned by over-population and famine.

B. Secondly, by preventive counter tendencies.[242-8] The person who believes himself unable to support children refrains from begetting them. This, we may call one of the most natural of duties. We might even say that the person who begets a child which he knows he is not in a condition to support, is guilty of a grievous sin against civil society, and of a still more grevious one against his poor child. Strange! To beget a child with countless wants, with an immortal soul! That is certainly an act the most pregnant with consequences which any ordinary man can perform in his life; and yet how thoughtlessly it is performed by the majority!

This counter-tendency is to be found only in the case of man. Plants and animals yield to the s.e.xual instinct regardless of everything.[242-9]

Where there is no question whatever of having food enough to support children, as is the case with the better-to-do cla.s.ses, the dread of losing the decencies of life, or of "losing caste," acts as a preventive[242-10] [242-11] to the founding a family, or increasing the numbers of one. Unfortunately, abstinence from the procreation of children may be exercised not only in accordance with the moral law,[242-12] but also, in contravention of it.[242-13] There is a necessary connection between human reason and human freedom and the possibility of misusing them. And it is certainly the inevitable fate of man either to place a morally rational check on the s.e.xual impulse, or to be forcibly held within the limits of the means of subsistence, since they cannot be over-stepped by him--through the agency of vice and misery.[242-14] [242-15]

[Footnote 242-1: Principle of Population, I, ch. I. Adam Smith also implicitly held the view that the demand for the means of subsistence is always in advance of them. Wealth of Nat., I, ch. II, pref. and P. I.]

[Footnote 242-2: This may be represented by what physicists call the "parallelogram of forces." Compare _Senior_, Outlines, 47. _Malthus'_ own explanation of "tendency," in his letter at the end of _Senior_, Two Lectures on Population, 1829.]