Successful Stock Speculation Part 4

It is a common thing to read about the short interests in certain stocks. All stocks that are sold short must be bought sooner or later, and when that buying takes place, it may affect the market very much.

Therefore, if it is known that there is a big short interest in a certain stock, we should expect the stock to sell at a higher price; but sometimes the short interests break the market and force the price down, especially when general conditions are in their favor.

CHAPTER XVIII.

BUCKET SHOPS

There has been so much publicity given to bucket shops, nearly everybody is familiar with the term. A broker runs a bucket shop when he sells stock to his clients on margin and either never buys the stock for their accounts, or else sells it immediately after buying it. The bucket shop simply gets your money on the supposition that you are more likely to be wrong than to be right. Of course, if you take the bucket shop's advice you surely are likely to be wrong. Bucket shops get their clients into the very speculative stocks, where there is likely to be a great deal of fluctuation in the price of the stocks, which gives them frequent opportunities to sell out their clients.

When the market is going down or when there are many movements up and down in the price of stocks, the bucket shops make money rapidly, but occasionally there is a long period when the market is working against the bucket shops, and unless they have a great deal of money they must fail.

In August, 1921, Stock Exchange stocks started to go up. The upward movement was very slow but it was continual. Up to the time of this writing, there has not been a three-point reaction, except in a few stocks, in all of that time. Without a fluctuating market, the bucket shop has no chance to clean out its customers. As a consequence, the bucket shops began to fail in the early part of 1922, and up to the present writing (April, 1922) there have been more than fifty of these failures. However, it is not likely that all the bucket shops will be put out of business. The more successful ones are likely to "weather the storm."

Many laws have been enacted against bucket shops, and we believe some way will be found to get rid of them at some future time; but we do not expect that to happen soon, and we warn our readers not to get into their hands, because if they do not get your money away from you one way they are likely to get it some other way. The man who runs a bucket shop usually has no conscience, and it certainly is an unfortunate thing for anyone to get mixed up with such a man.

CHAPTER XIX.

CHOOSING A BROKER

It is very important that you choose a good broker. No matter how careful you are, it is possible to make a mistake. However, if you choose a broker who is a member of the New York Stock Exchange, you have eliminated a very large percentage of your chances of getting a wrong broker.

Occasionally a member of the Stock Exchange fails and once in a while one is suspended for running a bucket shop or being connected with one, but these instances are very rare compared with the number of brokers who get into trouble who are not members of the New York Stock Exchange.

The rules and regulations of the Stock Exchange protect you to a great extent.

When you buy stock on margin, you leave your money in the hands of a broker, and you should know that he is responsible. No matter who your broker is, you should get a report on him. If you are a subscriber to Bradstreet's or Dun's Agencies, get a report from them. If you are not a subscriber to any mercantile agency, you perhaps have a friend who can get a report for you, or your bank may get one for you. Banks make a practice of getting reports of this kind for their clients. When asked to do so, we send our clients the names of brokers who are members of the New York Stock Exchange, but we prefer not to recommend any broker.

Of course, we cannot guarantee that a broker is all right. We simply use our best judgment, but, as we said before, you eliminate a large percentage of your chances of going wrong when you trade with a broker who is a member of the New York Stock Exchange.

CHAPTER XX.

PUTS AND CALLS

A "put" is a negotiable contract giving the holder the privilege to sell a specified number of shares of a certain stock to the maker at a fixed price, within a specified time. A "call" is the exact reverse. It is a negotiable contract giving the holder the privilege to buy a specified number of shares of a certain stock from the maker at a fixed price, within a specified time. The price fixed in a put or call is set away from the market price a certain number of points, depending upon the stock and the condition of the market. When the market is steady and not fluctuating, the price fixed is frequently only two points away, but in a more active market it is considerably more.

For instance, at the present time, U. S. Steel is selling at about 95, and you can buy a call on it at 97 or a put at 93. That is by paying a certain amount, which at present is $137.50, you can have the privilege of buying 100 shares of U. S. Steel at 97, within thirty days of the date of the purchase of your call. If Steel should go up to 101 you could have your broker buy it at 97 and sell it at the market, and you would make a profit of four points, less the cost of your call and commissions.

As a method of operating in the stock market, we do not recommend the buying of puts and calls. Professional speculators may be able to use them to advantage sometimes, but for the outsider, who is not in close touch with the market, there is nothing about them to recommend.

Here is one point: the people who sell puts and calls fix the terms. If the market is irregular, they will set the point of buying or selling far away from the market price. These people are shrewd traders and they make the terms in their own favor. It is generally said that nearly all the buyers of puts and calls lose, and that is our opinion. Therefore, we advise you to leave them alone.

CHAPTER XXI.

STOP LOSS ORDERS

A "stop-loss" is an order to your broker to sell you out if the market sells down a certain number of points. Many speculators place stop loss orders only two points from the market price. The idea is that when the market starts to go down it is likely to continue going down, and by taking a two-point loss you may save a much greater loss. It also can be applied to a short sale, when you give your broker instructions to buy in the stock for you if it goes up a certain number of points.

We read so much in the financial news about stop-loss orders or merely stop orders, which is the same thing, the average reader is likely to get the idea that it is something he must use for his own protection, but it is our opinion that it is something that should be used very seldom by those who trade along the broad lines recommended by us. If your purchases were made in stocks that were very cheap, you should continue to hold them in case of a reaction. If you bought them outright or on a substantial margin, you are not in danger, and you should look upon your loss merely as a paper loss. In the great majority of cases, you will be a great deal better off to hold on to your stocks than you would be if you had a stop-loss order.

A large number of stop-loss orders is a good thing for the short interests. Let us take U. S. Steel again, as an example. Suppose it is selling at 94 and it is believed that there are a large number of stop-loss orders at 92. The short interests may sell the stock heavily and force it down to 92. Then the brokers with stop-loss orders would begin to sell; that would force the price down still lower, and the short interests could buy in to cover at this lower price.

Therefore, we believe that stop-loss orders are a bad thing and, as a rule, do not recommend them.

There is one instance where a stop-loss order can be used to advantage, and that is near the top of a bull market. It is impossible to tell when the market has reached the top. If you sell out too soon, you may lose a profit of several points. Of course, it is better to do that than to take a chance of a large loss. In that case, you might instruct your broker to place a stop-loss order at two or more points below the market, and keep moving it up as the market price moves up. Then when the reaction does come, he will sell you out and prevent you from losing a large part of your profit. That is about the only instance where we recommend a stop-loss order, but we do recommend it to our clients sometimes, although seldom.

If the stock you own is selling at more than 100 we would suggest that you make the stop loss order at least three points from the market, but for stocks selling below 100, a two-point stop-loss order might be used.

However, the number of points should be decided upon in each particular case. In the special instructions to our clients, we tell them when we think they can use a stop-loss order to advantage.

_PART FIVE_

CONCLUDING CHAPTERS

CHAPTER XXII.

THE DESIRE TO SPECULATE

It is said that the desire to speculate is very strong in the American people. That is why our country has made greater progress than any other country in the world, because progress is the result of speculation. We are not referring merely to stock speculations, but to the word in its broadest sense. Every new undertaking is a speculation.

An inventor speculates on what he is going to invent. Often such speculations result in losses, because many inventors, or would-be-inventors, never accomplish very much. They spend their money, time, and efforts, and probably live years in poverty, and then if the invention is not profitable, they are heavy losers. Many inventors spend the best years of their lives in poverty and never succeed. We hear a great deal about some of those who do succeed, but very little about those who fail--those whose speculations were unsuccessful--except when somebody accuses them of being crooks because they solicited money for the promotion of their inventions and did not succeed.

It is the same thing with every new business. It is purely a speculation. It is a common saying that 95% of commercial undertakings fail. We do not know that that statement is correct, but there is no question but that the number of failures is very great, which shows the great risk in going into a new undertaking. It is far greater than the risk involved in stock speculating when it is done in accordance with the advice given in this book.

Yet, there would be no progress without speculating of this kind. If those entering a new business would make a careful study of the venture before entering it, and would exercise greater care and judgment in conducting it, the number of failures would be very much less. The same thing is true of stock speculating. The failures in stock speculating are caused mainly by ignorance and greediness. Many people who would be satisfied with a fair return on their money in a business enterprise, think they ought to make a 100% profit in a few weeks in stock speculation.

There is something about stock speculation that appeals to the greediness and pure gambling instincts of people. In the chapter on Manipulation, we have told you how stock prices are put up and down.

Some outsider accidentally buys one of these stocks just before the price starts up. In thirty days he has made several hundred per cent profit. He does not realize that it was purely accidental as far as he was concerned, and he tries to do the same thing again, and loses all of his profits and probably all of his capital as well.

A stock gambler (we use the word "gambler" to refer to a man who operates ignorantly) is watching a large number of extremely speculative stocks and suddenly notices one that takes a big jump in price. Then he says to himself, "If I only had bought that stock on a ten-point margin, I would have made several hundred per cent profit." He picks out another stock that some one tells him is going to do equally as well. He buys as much of it as he can and puts up all the money he has as a margin, but the price doesn't go up. Perhaps the price goes down and he loses his margin; but, it may remain almost stationary for a long period, sometimes for a year or more, and during all of this time, this man is worrying for fear he will lose his money. If he does not lose his money, it is tied up for a long time where he cannot use it to take advantage of real opportunities that come his way.