Proportional Representation: A Study in Methods of Election Part 30

West Midland-- Gloucesters.h.i.+re.

Herefords.h.i.+re.

Shrops.h.i.+re.

Staffords.h.i.+re.

Worcesters.h.i.+re.

Warwicks.h.i.+re.

North Midland-- Leicesters.h.i.+re.

Rutlands.h.i.+re.

Lincolns.h.i.+re.

Nottinghams.h.i.+re.

Derbys.h.i.+re.

North-West-- Ches.h.i.+re.

Lancas.h.i.+re.

Yorks.h.i.+re-- West Riding.

East Riding (with York).

North Riding.

Northern Division-- Durham.

Northumberland.

c.u.mberland.

Westmorland.

The first three columns, A, B and C, show the number of members allotted to these several divisions, the number of registered electors, and the number of members to which each division would be ent.i.tled if the 670 members of which the House of Commons is composed were divided among the several divisions in proportion to their electorates.

In taking the electorate as the basis of a proportionate redistribution of seats it is not intended to prejudge the question whether population or electorate is the better standard. The electorate has been taken because the figures are available for the very year in which the election takes place, whereas the population is only enumerated once in ten years.

The columns D and E show in two groups the number of members elected for these divisions, Liberal, Labour, and Irish members being gathered together in one column, Conservatives alone occupying the other.

It is one of the disadvantages of our present system of representation that it makes it quite impossible to ascertain the relative strength of the several parties into which the voters are divided. In the great majority of contests there is a Liberal, Labour, or Irish Nationalist candidate on one side, and a Unionist candidate on the other, and there is practically no evidence as to how many of the supporters of either candidate belong to each of the parties concerned. Any estimate of the relative strength of the Liberal and Labour parties or of the Unionist Free Traders, and Tariff Reformers must be largely a matter of guesswork. All that is possible, therefore, is to divide the voters into two groups, as has been done in these tables.

The columns F and G show the total electorate of the const.i.tuencies held respectively by the two groups of members shown in columns D and E.

The figures in these two columns are of value in showing the probable result of a scheme of redistribution. The South-Eastern counties may be taken as an example. These are at present represented by 48 members. The Liberals held three const.i.tuencies in January 1910 containing an electorate of 31,221 (columns D and F); the Conservatives held 45 const.i.tuencies containing an electorate of 604,887 (columns E and G). If a redistribution of seats was made on the basis of equal electorates, the South-Eastern counties would be ent.i.tled to 55 members (column C).

It may be a.s.sumed that in any rearrangement of const.i.tuencies the parties would retain their predominance in the areas which they now represent, and if so the result of a rearrangement of const.i.tuencies on the basis of equal electorates would be that in January 1910 the Conservatives would have obtained 52 seats and the Liberals 3 (column K). Similarly in the General Election of 1906 the Liberals in Wales and Monmouth held 34 seats, the Conservatives none. If the const.i.tuencies had been rearranged, the Liberals would have held 35 seats, the Conservatives none. The majorities throughout the United Kingdom which would be obtained under a scheme of equal electorates are shown in column K.

The columns H and I show the number of electors who voted for the candidates of the two groups; Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalist voters in one group, Conservative voters in the other.

In computing the figures in these columns an allowance has been made for uncontested const.i.tuencies on the following basis. It has been supposed that the changes of public opinion which affect the contested const.i.tuencies affect uncontested const.i.tuencies also, and in estimating the number of voters in an uncontested const.i.tuency it has therefore been a.s.sumed that the strength of each party varies from one election to another in the same ratio as in the contested const.i.tuencies in the same county.

The three columns J, K and L show respectively the actual majorities obtained, the majorities which would have been obtained if the country had been divided into single-member const.i.tuencies of equal size, and the majorities under a system of proportional representation.

The figures in the last two columns have been calculated with reference to the totals in column C, which gives the number of members to which each division would be ent.i.tled on a proportional basis.

In order to ascertain the figures given in column K _(i.e._ the probable results with equal single-member const.i.tuencies) it has been a.s.sumed, as already explained, that the two groups would, after the redistribution of seats, be predominant in the same areas as before the rearrangement.

_The representation of minorities._

The tables give abundant evidence of the anomalies a.s.sociated with our electoral system. One of the most striking is the great difference in the amount of representation secured by minorities in different parts of the country. The amount of representation secured by a minority has not depended upon its size, but upon the way in which it has been distributed. The following table shows the amount of representation obtained by important minorities in the General Election of January 1910:--

THE REPRESENTATION OF MINORITIES, ELECTION JAN. 1910

Size of Seats Total Seats Area. Minority. Obtained. for Whole Area Ireland . . . . . . . 145,437 21 103 Scotland . . . . . . . 265,770 11 72 S. East: Counties. . . 220,995 3 48 Wales and Monmouth . . 116,696 2 34 Northern Counties . . 75,897 9 32

The figures show that in Ireland a minority of 145,437 obtained twenty-one representatives, whilst a minority of 116,696 in Wales and Monmouth obtained only two. The good fortune which befel the minority in Ireland, not only in the elections of 1910 but in all the elections since the Redistribution Bill of 1885, has been due to the fact that this minority is concentrated in one corner of Ireland and can transform itself into local majorities. The larger minority in Scotland, owing to its distribution throughout the country, obtains much less representation; the minorities in the south-eastern counties of England and Wales are also distributed throughout these two areas and likewise suffer. The minority of 75,879 in the northern counties being less evenly diffused was more fortunate, and obtained nine representatives.

The figures for the election of December 1910 disclose similar anomalies.

GENERAL ELECTION, 1885

Col A: Members Col B: Registered Electors Col C: Proportionate Number of Members Col D: Members - Liberal, Labour and Irish Col E: Members - Conservatives Col F: Electorate of Const.i.tuencies held by - Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalists Col G: Electorate of Const.i.tuencies held by - Conservative Col H: Voters - Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalist Col I: Voters - Conservative Col J: Majority - Actual Col K: Majority - With equal Single Member Const.i.tuencies Col L: Majority - Under Proportional Representation.

A B C DE FG HI J K L Prop Memb Electorate Voters Majority Memb Elect Memb Act Eq PR Metropolis 60 489,396 57 LLI 22 165,345 162,228 Con 38 324,051 188,067 16 19 3 England South-East 48 406,955 47 LLI 4 34,883 144,659 Con 44 372,072 187,831 40 39 7 S.Midland 38 312,477 36 LLI 14 123,665 124,717 Con 24 188,811 129,544 10 8 East 29 257,022 29 LLI 18 173,521 107,710 7 11 1 Con 11 83,501 98,137 South-West 40 314,603 36 LLI 27 229,612 144,273 14 16 4 Con 13 84,991 117,442 W.Midland 58 544,415 63 LLI 45 427,549 248,825 32 36 8 Con 13 116,866 198,212 N.Midland 34 328,844 38 LLI 26 255,836 55,503 18 22 4 Con 8 73,008 120,933 North-West 70 654,751 76 LLI 24 231,123 263,670 Con 46 423,628 292,942 22 22 4 Yorks.h.i.+re 52 536,553 62 LLI 36 398,426 248,078 20 30 8 Con 16 138,127 189,930 20 30 8 North 32 305,015 35 LLI 25 262,287 144,803 18 25 5 Con 7 42,728 96,708 ENGLAND 461 4,150,031 480 LLI 241 2,302,248 1,740,466 21 52 16 Con 220 1,847,783 1,619,746 Wales and Monmouth 34 286,145 33 LLI 30 263,199 149,782 26 27 11 Con 4 22,946 79,006 Scotland 72 576,828 67 LLI 58 485,116 289,032 44 45 15 Con 14 91,712 181,706

Britain 567 5,013,004 580 LLI 329 3,050,563 2,179,230 91 124 42 Con 238 1,962,441 1,880,458 Ireland 103 777,954 90 LLI 85 624,760 404,892 67 54 44 Con 18 153,194 139,273

Total 670 5,790,958 670 LLI 414 3,675,323 2,584,122 158 178 86 Con 256 2,115,635 2,019,731

Majority 158 1,559,638 564,391

NOTE.--The figures in columns K and L are calculated with reference to the totals in column C. Thus the figure L 54 for Ireland in column K of the last section of the table indicates that under a system of equal single-member const.i.tuencies Ireland's 90 members would be Liberal etc.

72, Unionist 18, a Liberal majority of 54, and the corresponding figure L 44 in column L indicates that under proportional representation the 90 members which Ireland would return would be Liberal etc. 67, and Unionist 23. a Liberal majority of 44.

GENERAL ELECTION, 1886

Col A: Members Col B: Registered Electors Col C: Proportionate Number of Members Col D: Members - Liberal, Labour and Irish Col E: Members - Conservatives Col F: Electorate of Const.i.tuencies held by - Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalists Col G: Electorate of Const.i.tuencies held by - Conservative Col H: Voters - Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalist Col I: Voters - Conservative Col J: Majority - Actual Col K: Majority - With equal Single Member Const.i.tuencies Col L: Majority - Under Proportional Representation.

A B C DE FG HI J K L Prop Memb Electorate Voters Majority Memb Elect Memb Act Eq PR Metropolis 60 489,396 57 LLI 11 87,974 125,457 Con 49 401,422 185,072 38 37 11 England-- South-East 48 406,955 47 LLI 0 - 114,518 Con 48 406,955 184,221 48 47 11 S.Midland 38 312,477 36 LLI 9 73,292 94,213 Con 29 239,185 128,339 20 20 6 East 29 257,022 29 LLI 4 87,975 81,838 Con 25 219,047 102,732 21 21 3 South-West 40 314,603 36 LLI 7 63,063 96,753 Con 33 251,540 129,056 26 22 6 W.Midland 58 544,415 63 LLI 15 136,518 173,463 Con 43 407,897 218,753 28 32 8 N.Midland 34 328,844 38 LLI 14 147,138 125,078 Con 20 181,706 126,547 6 4 North-West 70 654,751 76 LLI 13 123,459 236,134 Con 57 531,292 282,187 44 48 6 Yorks.h.i.+re 52 536,553 62 LLI 33 359,414 214,407 6 Con 19 177,139 180,728 14 22 North 32 305,015 35 LLI 23 247,275 123,901 5 Con 9 57,740 96,404 14 21 ENGLAND 461 4,150,031 480 LLI 129 1,276,108 1,385,762 Con 332 2,873,923 1,634,039 203 188 42

Wales and Monmouth 34 286,145 33 LLI 27 240,752 123,186 20 23 7 Con 7 45,393 82,179 Scotland 72 576,828 67 LLI 43 339,726 218,561 14 11 5 Con 29 237,102 188,164

Subtotal 567 5,013,004 580 LLI 199 1,856,586 1,727,509 Con 368 3,156,418 1,904,382 169 154 30

Ireland 103 777,954 90 LLI 84 616,735 376,445 Con 19 161,219 144,755 65 52 38

Total 670 5,790,958 670 LLI 283 2,473,321 2,103,954 8 Con 387 3,317,637 2,049,137 104 102

Majority 104 844,316 54,817

GENERAL ELECTION, 1892

Table headings: Col A: Members Col B: Registered Electors Col C: Proportionate Number of Members Col D: Members - Liberal, Labour and Irish Col E: Members - Conservatives Col F: Electorate of Const.i.tuencies held by - Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalists Col G: Electorate of Const.i.tuencies held by - Conservative Col H: Voters - Liberal, Labour, and Irish Nationalist Col I: Voters - Conservative Col J: Majority - Actual Col K: Majority - With equal Single Member Const.i.tuencies Col L: Majority - Under Proportional Representation.

A B C DE FG HI J K L Prop Memb Electorate Voters Majority Memb Elect Memb Act Eq PR Metropolis 60 552,024 60 LLI 23 186,572 183,967 Con 37 365,452 214,275 14 20 4 England: South-East 48 463,073 50 LLI 4 38,534 147,136 Con 44 424,539 206,075 40 42 8 S.Midland 38 340,650 38 LLI 15 139,228 120,844 Con 23 210,422 147,347 8 8 4 East 29 276,491 30 LLI 13 134,632 108,866 Con 16 141,859 110,849 3 South-West 40 325,769 35 LLI 15 136,061 125,392 Con 25 189,708 136,449 10 5 1 W. Midland 58 577,397 63 LLI 16 143,567 204,453 Con 42 433,830 248,774 26 31 7 N. Midland 34 347,482 38 LLI 22 232,970 145,587 10 14 2 Con 12 114,512 130,380 North-West 70 707,392 77 LLI 26 284,970 282,139 Con 44 422,422 307,698 18 15 3 Yorks.h.i.+re 52 571,864 62 LLI 35 418,414 244,099 18 28 6 Con 17 153,450 204,492 North 32 328,189 36 LLI 25 264,483 143,172 18 22 4 Con 7 63,706 115,626 ENGLAND 461 4,499,331 489 LLI 194 1,979,431 1,705,655 Con 267 2,519,900 1,821,985 73 57 15

Wales and Monmouth 34 314,063 34 LLI 31 294,395 152,326 28 30 10 Con 3 19,668 86,576 Scotland 72 606,203 66 LLI 52 449,994 267,631 32 32 8 Con 20 156,209 214,448

Subtotal 567 5,419,497 589 LLI 277 2,723,820 2,125,612 5 3 Con 290 2,695,777 2,123,009 13 Ireland 103 746,781 81 LLI 80 561,938 345,548 57 41 31 Con 23 184,843 157,181

Total 670 6,168,388 670 LLI 357 3,285,758 2,471,164 44 46 34 Con 313 2,880,620 2,280,190 Majority 44 405,138 190,974

GENERAL ELECTION, 1895