Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic Part 6

THE FIRST ESSAY.

It could not be expected that an a.s.sertion of London's being bigger than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and 'tis also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), should make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto,

I begin with the ingenious author of the "Republique des Lettres,"

who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no mosques till about 50 years after.

In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout's "Letters from Rome," who is content that London, Westminster, and Southwark may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but faintly denieth, that all the housing within the bills may have almost as many people as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several parishes inserted into these bills are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that Grant so understood it.

To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: --(l) That the London bills appear in Grant's book to have been always, since the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years since, three or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were joined by interposed buildings to the bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) That since fifty years the whole buildings being more than double have perfected that union, so as there is no house within the said bills from which one may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5) That there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole.

Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout's large letter, dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in truth, it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:-

Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, and Rome, viz.:-

Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of the said houses, one with another, the number of families will be 81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, the utmost number of people in Paris, according to that opinion, will be 487,680.

The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the L'Hotel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the former, the net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty (which is more advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout's opinion of one to die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 more than by Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned account 491,430.

And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.

The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people there will be 696,360.

The number of houses at London appears by the register to be 105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as the least number of double families that can be supposed in London, the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 695,076.

The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718.

So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is 488,055.

Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout's utmost demands 80,000.

Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter 125,000.

Total 693,055.

So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome by 2,663.

Memorandum.--That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one- fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris and Rouen put together, by 114,284.

Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city of France contains.

THE SECOND ESSAY.

As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, viz.:-

1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than the best of Paris.

2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than at London.

3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage.

4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London is the most considerable of all Europe.

5. The s.h.i.+pping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater than that at Paris and Rouen.

6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and are worth 140,000 pounds sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres, besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere.

7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one- fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one- twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater than at London.

8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a wholesome sulphurous bitumen.

9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.

10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel.

11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple to that of England) be lodged there.

12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible way by G.o.d's ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds when it next appeareth.

13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, or as twenty-three to thirteen.

14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen to twenty-three.

15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Monsieur Chivreau reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about 700,000. Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen square miles, whereas the built ground at London is about nine square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions agree with each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries.

THE THIRD ESSAY.

Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz. -

I know but three ways of finding the same.

1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.

2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion of those that live, to those that die.

3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential years, in proportion to those that escape.

The First Way.

To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. -