Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic Part 8

When these a.s.sertions have pa.s.sed the examen of the critics, we shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.

THE FIFTH ESSAY.

Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.

Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath--as we have elsewhere noted-- 187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000--in all, the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the cities and market-towns.

Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads in each--the medium between MM. Auzout's and Grant's reckonings--the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four--the medium between thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned--the total of the people would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number of Holland.

Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the world, I never found that in any country--not in China itself-- there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories pa.s.sing for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (alias North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture to p.r.o.nounce (till better informed) that the people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the same to be but 85,000.

The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith -

1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as follows, viz.:-

1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000.

2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.

I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that these a.s.sertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England's subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this objector's own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector's doctrine, if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England's territories should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.

To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that they would prove -

1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.

2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James the Second came to the empire thereof.

OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.

Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and forming part of "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade." Published in 1699.

The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in ma.n.u.script. The calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any other person.

With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.

He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.

From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase -

That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ's time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ's birth about 400,000.

That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat above 2,000,000.

That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.

That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.

That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:-

Anno Number of Increase every Domini. people. hundred years.

1300 2,800,000 1400 3,300,000 440,000.

1500 3,840,000 540,000.

1600 4,620,000 780,000.

1700 5,500,000 880,000.

1800 6,420,000 920,000.

1900 7,350,000 930,000.

2000 8,280,000 930,000.

2100 9,205,000 925,000.

2200 10,115,000 910,000.

2300 11,000,000 885,000.

Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls per annum.

But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls.

And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls.

Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls.

It is to be noted-- Per ann.

1. That the allowance for plagues and great mortalities may come to at a medium 4,000 2. Foreign or civil wars at a medium 3,500 3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum.

about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500 the death of about 4. The plantations (over and above the accession of foreigners) 1,000 may carry away Whereby the net annual increase may be but 9,000 souls.

That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements.

The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls.

The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by procreation 2,000 souls.

But London and the bills of mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls.

So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom's net increase.

Mr. King further observes that by the a.s.sessments on marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors' returns thereupon, and by the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and burials are according to the following scheme

Vide Scheme A.