The Little Blue Reasoning Book Part 10

4. Eliminate common wrong answer choices including out of scopes, distortions, and opposites.

There are three common wrong answer choices in reading comprehension. These include aout of scope,a aopposite,a and adistorteda answer choices. Note that although airrelevanta answer choices are possible (and common wrong answer choices among critical reasoning problems), they are not common wrong answer choices in reading comprehension.

Reading Comprehension Snapshot There is an obvious difference between the kind of casual reading that takes place when reading a newspaper and the kind required when one encounters reading comprehension in an exam format. There are essentially five areas to cover when discussing strategies to tackle reading comprehension pa.s.sages and accompanying multiple-choice questions. Mastering reading comprehension involves an understanding of pa.s.sage type, pa.s.sage content, and pa.s.sage structure, as well as pa.s.sage question types and common wrong answer choices.

I. Pa.s.sage Type i)*Social science ii)*Science II. Pa.s.sage Content i)*Topic ii)*Scope iii)*Purpose (equals main idea) III. Pa.s.sage Structure i)*Transition or guide words ii)*Number of paragraphs and their function iii)*Number of viewpoints and their relations.h.i.+ps IV. Pa.s.sage Question Types i)*Overview questions ii)*Explicit-detail questions iii)*Inference questions iv)*Tone questions v)*Pa.s.sage organization questions V. Common Wrong Answer Choices i)*Out of scope ii)*Opposite iii)*Distortion iv)*Irrelevant v)*Too general vi)*Too detailed Pa.s.sage Type There are three basic types of reading comprehension pa.s.sages a" social science, science, and business/economics. Since business and economics pa.s.sages read more similar to social science than science, they fit easily under the umbrella of social science. The fundamental difference between social science and science is that science pa.s.sages tend to be objective and generally exist to describe. Social science pa.s.sages tend to be subjective and usually exist to argue. Social science (which deals with people, societies, and their inst.i.tutions) is typically the domain of ideas, opinions, and conjecture while science (which deals with nature and the universe) is typically the domain of phenomena, theories, and details.

Viewpoints, and the flow of ideas and viewpoints, are generally more important in social science readings than in science readings. In terms of understanding a social science pa.s.sage, it is critical to understand the authoras stance a" awhat side the author is on.a A fitting a.n.a.logy is to say that social science pa.s.sages are ariver-rafting ridesa where the goal is to not fall off our raft amid the twists and turns. Science pa.s.sages are aarcheological digs.a Once we determine where to dig, we must keep track of the small pieces a" we must be able to memorize and work with details.

Pa.s.sage Content Obviously, the better we understand what we have read, the better our chance of answering questions related to the subject at hand. In breaking down pa.s.sage content, we can subdivide everything into three areas, namely topic, scope, and purpose.

Topic is defined as athe broad subject matter of the pa.s.sage.a Scope is defined as athe specific aspect of the topic that the author is interested in.a Purpose is defined as athe authoras main reason for writing the pa.s.sagea or awhy did the author sit down to write this pa.s.sage.a In summary, topic and scope are awhata a pa.s.sage is about while purpose is about awhya the pa.s.sage was written.

One tip involves always performing a atopic-scope-purposea drill. That is, always ask yourself what is the topic, scope, and purpose. Letas test this.

The whale is the largest mammal in the animal kingdom. When most people think of whales, they think of sluggish, obese animals, frolicking freely in the ocean by day and eating tons of food to sustain themselves. When people think of ants, on the other hand, they tend to think of hardworking underfed creatures transporting objects twice their body size to and from hidden hideaways. However, if we a.n.a.lyze food consumption based on body size, we find that ants eat their full body weight everyday while a whale eats the equivalent of only one-thousandth of its body weight each day. In fact, when we compare the proportionate food consumption of all living creatures, we find that the whale is one of the most food efficient creatures on earth.

What is the topic? The answer is clearly awhales.a Donat be fooled into thinking that the topic is the aanimal kingdom.a This would be an example of an answer that is too general. What is the scope? The answer is afood consumption of whales.a What is the purpose of the pa.s.sage or why did the author sit down to write this? The authoras purpose is to say that whales are food efficient creatures and to thereby counter the popular misconception that they are abiologicala gas guzzlers.

Pa.s.sage Structure There are essentially two distinct ways to a.n.a.lyze pa.s.sage structure: the micro and the macro. Micro a.n.a.lysis involves keeping track of transitions, which signal the flow of the pa.s.sage. Transition or guide words, including such words as but and however, have been called the traffic lights of language. These words serve one of four primary purposes: to show continuation, ill.u.s.tration, contrast, or conclusion. See Exhibit A.

Exhibit B a" Pa.s.sage Structure and Viewpoint Macro a.n.a.lysis involves not only noting the number of paragraphs and their function, but more importantly, the number of viewpoints and their relations.h.i.+p. The relations.h.i.+ps between or among viewpoints are finite and summarized in Exhibit B.

In terms of paragraphs and their functions, the opening paragraph is usually the introduction and each succeeding paragraph takes on a single viewpoint or concept. Pa.s.sages with one or two viewpoints are most common on reading pa.s.sages, although three viewpoints within a single reading comprehension pa.s.sage is a possibility. As already noted, viewpoints are more applicable to social science pa.s.sages than to science pa.s.sages because social science is typically subjective and argumentative.

Pa.s.sage Question Types There are five basic kinds of reading comprehension questions. These include: (1) overview questions, (2) explicit-detail questions, (3) inference questions, (4) tone questions, and (5) pa.s.sage organization questions. Examples of each question type follow.

Overview questions: aThe primary purpose of this pa.s.sage is to aa or aWhich of the following is the authoras main idea?a Not surprisingly, an overview question is sometimes called a primary purpose or main idea question.

Explicit-detail questions: aAccording to the pa.s.sage, the author states that aa An explicit-detail question is a question which has a very literal answer. It is something that the reader has read and it can be confirmed based on words actually written in the pa.s.sage.

Inference questions: aIt can be inferred from the pa.s.sage that aa or aThe author implies that aa The artistry in answering an inference question lies in drawing that magic line between what can be logically inferred based on information in a pa.s.sage and what is declared outside the scope of the pa.s.sage.

Tone questions: aThe att.i.tude of the author toward mystics can best be described as aa A tone question asks the reader to comment on the atemperaturea of some aspect of the pa.s.sage.

Pa.s.sage organization questions: aWhich of the following best describes the way in which this pa.s.sage is organized?a A pa.s.sage organization question asks about the structure of the pa.s.sage or the structure of a portion of the pa.s.sage.

Exhibit C a" The Four-Corner Question Cracker for Reading Comprehensiona"

The four-quadrant grid above, per Exhibit C, is a useful tool to ferret out common wrong answer choices on reading comprehension questions. The correct answer always appears in the middle where the bullas-eye is located. The four incorrect answers will almost always appear in one of the four corners.

Common Wrong Answer Choices Out of Scope: An out of scope answer choice is an answer choice that cannot be answered based on information in the pa.s.sage. An out of scope statement may, in fact, be right or wrong, but it is not something that can be determined based on information supplied by the pa.s.sage.

Irrelevant: An irrelevant answer choice is an answer choice that in no way touches the topic; it is completely off target. We might contrast irrelevant answer choices with out of scope answer choices in that an out of scope answer choice is related tangentially to the pa.s.sage, whereas the irrelevant answer choice is not. Think of an archer with bow and arrow. Out of scope means that the archer is missing the target, but at least he or she is shooting at the right target, and in the right direction. Irrelevant means that the archer isnat even shooting at the correct target.

Opposite: An opposite answer choice is an answer choice which is opposite in meaning to a statement or viewpoint expressed or implied by the pa.s.sage. One common way answer choices are used to reverse meaning is through the inclusion or omission of prefixes such as ain,a aun,a and adis,a or the inclusion or omission of negative words such as anoa or anot.a Thus aunfortunatelya becomes afortunately,a aadvantageousa becomes adisadvantageous,a and anot applicablea becomes aapplicable.a Distortion: A distorted answer choice is an answer choice that distorts the meaning of something stated or implied by the pa.s.sage. Saying, for example, that something is agooda is not the same as saying that something is abest.a Distortions are typically signaled by the use of extreme wording or by the use of categorical words such as aany,a aall,a aalways,a acannot,a anever,a aonly,a and asolely.a Too General: This answer choice is relevant only to the overview question type. Examples: A discussion of aSouth American trade imbalances in the 1950sa is not the same thing as a discussion of amodern global economic practices.a The latter is obviously broader in scope: aglobala is broader than aSouth Americana; amoderna is broader than athe 1950sa; aeconomicsa encompa.s.ses more than just atrade imbalances.a Too Detailed: This answer choice is also relevant only to overview-type questions. Example: A discussion of athe propagation of the Venus Fly Trapa is a much more specific topic than is aplant reproductive systems.a The correct answer to an overview-type question is, relative to the topic, neither overly general nor overly detailed.

Letas gain further insight into how test makers may create incorrect answer choices with respect to reading comprehension (as well as critical reasoning) questions. Take the following easy-to-understand statement: Original: aSuccess is a strange phenomenon. You can achieve it through hard work, skill, or luck, or some combination of the three.a Here are several concocted statements derived from the original statement which showcase incorrect answer choices.

Out of scope: aThe most important ingredient in success is hard work.a (Comment: No, we donat know whether hard work is the most important element in achieving success.) aHard work is a more important element in success than is skill.a (Comment: Unwarranted comparison a" we donat know which element, in relative terms, is more important than the other.) Irrelevant: aPeople who achieve success through hard work, skill, or luck sometimes find that their lives are meaningless.a (Comment: We are only concerned with how to achieve success, not what might happen beyond that juncture.) Opposite: aPeople who are either hardworking, skillful, or lucky are not likely to achieve success.a (Comment: The word anota reverses the meaning of the original statement.) Distortion: aOnly through hard work can one achieve success.a (Comment: No, we can also achieve success by being skillful or lucky. The word aonlya creates a distortion.) aA person who is hardworking does not run any risk of failure.a (Comment: The word aanya distorts the meaning of the original statement. How likely is the possibility of engaging in any human endeavor and having no chance of failure. Another way to view this statement is out of scope because the original statement makes no mention of the word afailure.a) aA person who is hardworking, skillful, or lucky can achieve greatness.a (Comment: The word agreatnessa has an elevated meaning as compared with asuccess.a Another way to view this statement is that it is out of scope because the original statement does not make mention of what it takes to achieve greatness.) The Relations.h.i.+p Between Question Types and Common Wrong Answer Choices How might the different reading comprehension question types be tackled based on an understanding of the common wrong answer choices?

(1) Overview questions There are at least four ways to avoid wrong answer choices when tackling overview questions.

i) Consider eliminating any answer choice which does not contain the words of the topic. Note that this advice works well for Q1, problem 43.

ii) Avoid any overly detailed answer choice which may be a factually correct statement, but which is too detailed to be the correct answer choice to an overview question.

iii) Avoid any overly general answer choice that is too broad to represent the topic at hand.

iii) Use a verb scan, when possible. That is, look at the verb which begins each answer choice and eliminate those verbs which do not fit. Five common verbs found in reading comprehension pa.s.sages include describe, discuss, explain, argue, and criticize. aArguea is found frequently in social science pa.s.sages; adescribea is found frequently in science pa.s.sages. aDiscussa and aexplaina are found in both social science and science pa.s.sages. aCriticizea is usually not correct in an overview question involving a science pa.s.sage because the author is typically out to describe something without being opinionated or judgmental.

(2) Explicit-detail questions and (3) Inference questions On both explicit-detail questions and inference questions, common wrong answer choices include opposites and out of scopes.

Inference questions are especially vulnerable to wrong answer choices that are beyond the scope of the pa.s.sage. In the context of a standardized test question, the test taker must be careful not to a.s.sume too much. Standardized test questions are notorious for narrowing the scope of what we can infer based on what we read. Contrast this with everyday life in which we generally use a loose framework and a.s.sume a lot.

(4) Tone questions Tone is att.i.tude and there are basically three atemperaturesa for tone questions a" positive, negative, or neutral. One trick is to avoid answer choices which contain averbally confused word pairs.a For example, the word pairs asupercilious disdaina or aself-mingled pitya are not terribly clear. Test makers like to include these types of answer choices believing that test takers will be attracted to confusing, complex sounding wrong answer choices.

(5) Pa.s.sage organization questions Two cla.s.sic structures arise in reading comprehension pa.s.sages. The first relates to social science pa.s.sages, where a common structure is aA > B.a Given that the hallmark of social science pa.s.sages is their provocative, subjective, and often argumentative nature, such pa.s.sages often contain competing viewpoints, where one view is favored over another. The other cla.s.sic structure relates to science pa.s.sages, which are often structured in the form of aA, B.a An important distinction with regard to the latter is that the two events are simply being described in detail, but not contrasted. Because science pa.s.sages exist cla.s.sically to describe (not to criticize), the author is unlikely to show favoritism to one side.

Regardless of the structure of the pa.s.sage, a reader should always be careful to distinguish between the authoras view and that of the information and evidence in the pa.s.sage itself. For instance, the author may present information that clearly favors one side of an issue, especially if there is more support for that side or the stance is compelling. However, he or she may not necessarily endorse that viewpoint. Remember that awhat the pa.s.sage saysa and awhat the author thinksa may not always be one in the same. For example, an author of a pa.s.sage may present evidence as to why the scientific community, in general, is sceptical about a belief in psychics, but that doesnat necessarily mean that the author is skeptical about a belief in psychics.

Authoras note: Two caveats that must be noted when using the The Four-Corner Question Cracker for Reading Comprehensiona". The first is that it can only be used on three of the five question types, namely overview questions, explicit-detail questions, and inference questions. That said, this is hardly problematic because these three question types are by far the most common question types found in reading comprehension. In fact, they may even be referred to as the abig 3a question types for reading comprehension. Second, the vertical grid of the four-corner question cracker, which highlights too general answer choices and too detailed answer choices, can only be used when tackling overview questions. That is, the vertical grid cannot be used on explicit-detail or inference questions. In short, wrong answer choices on explicit-detail and inference questions are strictly referred to as being out of scope, opposite in meaning, or distorted in meaning.

ANSWERS AND EXPLANATIONS.

Note: Some problems have definitive solutions. For others, where there is no single arighta answer, a proposed solution is provided.

CHAPTER 2: CREATIVE THINKING.

Problem 1: One Stroke

Oh, how easy it is to be trapped by a programmed mindset and conclude, aThereas no answer here!a SIX = 6.

Another solution is: IX a 6 Hereas another solution (although the instructions donat actually say you can reposition a character): IX = 9.

Back to problem Problem 2: Mop The floor is dirty because Sally used a dirty mop, and before she used the mop the floor was clean!

Back to problem Problem 3: Pattern There are two possible solutions to this problem. The first solution below could be accurate if the pattern alternates with one on top and three on the bottom. This solution is also accurate if we put vowels on the top and consonants on the bottom.

A second solution is possible if we put letters consisting only of straight lines on top and letters consisting of curves on the bottom.

Back to problem Problem 4: Nine Dots The aNine Dots Gamea serves as an example of a self-imposed barrier to creativity. As can be seen in the first solution below, the lines can be drawn outside of the perimeter formed by the nine dots. This usually cannot be seen because we are programmed to keep the lines within the boxed area. Another possibility, as depicted by the solution on the right, occurs by drawing lines that touch the corners of the various dots. Nothing states that the lines have to be drawn through the centers of the dots.

Back to problem Problem 5: Two Water Bucket Problem Back to problem

CHAPTER 3 a" DECISION MAKING.

Problem 6: Corporate Training Back to problem Problem 7: Singles Answer: 662a"3%. Two-thirds of the women are single (i.e., 20a"30 = 2a"3). An truly easy way to do this problem is to a.s.sume for simplicityas sake that there are 100 students in the course and fill in the given information, turning percentages into numbers. For example, if 70% of the students are male, then 30% must be female. If we a.s.sume there are 100 students then 70 are male and 30 are female. With this method, visualize the percentages in the matrixes below as being actual numbers and appearing without percent signs.

First, plug the given data from the problem into the matrix: Second, complete the matrix, totaling down and across: Back to problem Problem 8: Batteries Answer: 4%. To obtain the percentage of defective batteries sold by the factory, we fill in the information per the following matrix to obtain 3a"75 or 1a"25 or 4%. Picking the number a100a (which a.s.sumes 100 is the total number of batteries) greatly simplifies the task at hand.

First, plug the given data from the problem into the matrix: Second, complete the matrix, totaling down and across: Back to problem Problem 9: Interrogation Answer: 7%. Seven percent of all subjects will end up confessing to the crime and rightfully soaa"aaTheyare admitting they did it and they really did do it!a Step 1: Fill in the given information.

Step 2: Complete the matrix, totaling down and across: Back to problem Problem 10: Set Menu Answer: 24. The diagram that follows serves both as a decision-event tree and a probability tree. First, there are twenty-four ways by which a diner can choose his or her meal. Second, if we a.s.sume that every dish has an equal probability of being chosen, then the probability of any meal being chosen is 1a"24. For example, one person could choose soup, pasta, pie, and coffee (1a"2 - 1a"3 - 1a"2 - 1a"2 = 1a"24a). Another person might choose salad, fish, cake, and tea (1a"2 - 1a"3 - 1a"2 - 1a"2 = 1a"24a).

Back to problem Problem 11: Investor Answer: $55,000.

First Investment: Second Investment: Third Investment: First Investment: WA = $90,000(1a"6) + $50,000(1a"2) + a'$60,000(1a"3) = $20,000 Second Investment: WA = $100,000(1a"2) + a'$50,000(1a"2) = $25,000) Third Investment: WA = $100,000(1a"4) + $60,000(1a"4) + (a'$40,000)(1a"4) + (a'$80,000)(1a"4) = $10,000 So, the aggregate value of all three investments is: Expected Return = $20,000 + $25,000 + $10,000 = $55,000 Note: Expected Return is calculated using the weighted average formula.

Back to problem

CHAPTER 4 a" a.n.a.lYZING ARGUMENTS.

Comparison and a.n.a.logy a.s.sumptions Problem 12: Crime Choice E. The key to understanding this problem is to see the scope s.h.i.+ft that occurs as a result of switching terms from acrimea to areported crime.a Obviously, reported crime is not the same thing as actual crime. As answer choice E states: aIt is possible for reported crime to have gone down while actual crime has remained the same or actually gone up.a In order to make comparisons we need to stick to terms that are of equivalent meaning.

Choice A is incorrect. This answer choice slightly strengthens, not weakens, the original argument. In choice B, it does not matter whether police officers, as citizens themselves, voted for a bill on initiatives to reduce crime in the city. It also does not matter, as in choice C, whether most arrests were repeat offenders. Whether first-time offenders or repeat offenders, crime is crime.

The fact that crime has come to include white-collar crime (choice D) actually strengthens the argument. It suggests that there could be more incidences of crime (or cases of reported crime), which makes a decrease in crime (or cases of reported crime) potentially that much more significant.

Back to problem Problem 13: Hyperactivity Choice D. The idea that more types of behavior are deemed hyperactive indeed weakens the claim that children today are more hyperactive than they were ten years ago. In short, there are more ways to acheck offa and confirm hyperactive behavior. In order to compare the hyperactivity of children today versus ten years ago, we need an even playing field in terms of the comparability of terms: the definition of hyperactivity or the criteria for hyperactive behavior must remain consistent over time. Choices A and B are effectively out of the argumentas scope. We are not talking about creativity and spontaneity, nor are we primarily concerned about other potentially more serious issues beyond hyperactivity. The impact of having more or fewer pictures in childrenas books remains unclear (choice C) as does an increase in ailments such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) per choice E.

Back to problem Representativeness a.s.sumptions Problem 14: Movie Buffs Choice B. This is a cla.s.sic representative sample a.s.sumption question. The argument a.s.sumes that a sample based on people attending Sunday matinees (afternoon showings) is representative of the whole country of moviegoers. The question is, aHow representative is the opinion of those attending Sunday matinees?a For example, Sunday matinee moviegoers might consist of a disproportionate number of family viewers (i.e., people with children) who prefer not to watch bizarre or violent movies during their Sunday afternoons. For this sample to be representative, we need to survey at least some Sat.u.r.day night moviegoers, Sat.u.r.day matinee moviegoers, and weekday moviegoers.

Choice A does weaken the argument somewhat by suggesting that people will see a movie regardless of its genre just so long as their star actor (or actress) appears. Choice C is incorrect because we are concerned about the current tastes of moviegoers and not the movie hits of yesteryear.

Choice D is incorrect. We cannot a.s.sume that increased book sales and college enrollment in criminology courses is necessarily linked to trends among moviegoers. As far as we know, the moderate increase in course enrollments is the result of many other factors.

Choice E is incorrect because it notionally strengthens the idea that movie producers should stop producing these types of movies because they are financially unsound. If actorsa salaries are high, then movie production costs will be higher, putting pressure on the bottom line.

Back to problem Problem 15: Bull Market Choice A. This argument a.s.sumes that the whole of the Indian economy can be judged from the strength of the stock market, here the National Stock Exchange (NSE) index. In choice B, the fact that the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) index (another major stock exchange in India) has gone up does lend support for the comments made but it does not lend as much support as does choice A. Choice A provides direct support for the key a.s.sumption in the argument.

The fact that the National Stock Exchange (NSE) index was down this time last year, choice C, neither lends support for nor weakens the argument at hand. The fact that the Asian and European economies are also considered strong (choice D) lends some tangential support to a strong Indian economy, but it is hard to draw any firm conclusions from this fact. The fact that the National Stock Exchange (NSE) index is subject to great fluctuations (choice E) serves to weaken the comments made.

This is essentially the same argument used in the example t.i.tled aFinlanda in chapter 2, which may also be viewed under the guise of a representativeness a.s.sumption. The argument concludes (in the agenerala) that Finland is the most technologically advanced country on earth; the argument uses as evidence (in the aparticulara) the fact that more people per capita own mobile phones in Finland than anywhere else on earth.

Back to problem Problem 16: Putting Choice C. The argument a.s.sumes that the ability to putt is the pivotal factor in determining whether a person can achieve a low golf score. A good golf game has many ingredients, including putting, driving, iron shots, chipping, sand trap shots, judging weather, pacing, strategy, temperament, experience, physical fitness, and compet.i.tiveness. This pa.s.sage a.s.sumes that it all happens on the putting green. Although it would be impossible to argue that putting is not an important component to achieving a low score in golf, it is certainly not the only factor.

Choice A is incorrect. We cannot a.s.sume that there is no way to improve a golf game other than with quality equipment. Practice itself might be enough to simply improve a golf game. The argument does suggest that if a person wants to make great improvements in his or her golf game then he or she needs to make improvements in putting and, ideally, purchase a new Sweet Spot Putter.

Choice B is incorrect because it forms an unwarranted comparison that is not a.s.sumed in the argument. We do not know whether a new Sweet Spot Putter will improve an amateuras game more than it will improve a professionalas game or vice-versa. Likewise, choice D is incorrect because we do not know whether the new Sweet Spot Putter is superior to any other putter currently on the market. For all we know, the Sweet Spot Putter is just one of three new miracle putters.

Per choice E, we also have no way of knowing whether lessons are, or are not, as effective at improving the accuracy of a playeras putting as is the use of quality equipment.

Authoras note: Broadly speaking, representative sample a.s.sumptions are applicable any time that we argue from the particular to the general. Surveys or questionnaires are so often used as the basis for representative sample a.s.sumptions, as seen in problem 14, t.i.tled Movie Buffs. In the previous problem, t.i.tled Bull Market, the strength of the Indian economy (the agenerala) is based on the strength of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) index (the aparticulara). In the problem at hand, success in the game of golf is a.s.sumed to rest primarily on the ability to make putts. Here again, we argue primarily from the particular (aputtinga) to the general (agolfa).

Back to problem aGood Evidencea a.s.sumptions Problem 17: Criticas Choice Choice C. Since there are certainly far more than 100 contemporary and 100 non-contemporary novels to choose from, a question arises as to whether those novels chosen are representative of the entire population of contemporary and non-contemporary novels. It is possible that the author of Decline of the Novelist chose novels which best supported his/her thesis a" that todayas novelists are not as skillful as the novelists of yesteryear. Choice A might weaken the argument slightly but certainly wouldnat weaken it seriously. Choice B, while highly plausible, is irrelevant to the argument because the author focuses his/her argument on technical skill. Choice D is simply out of scope since we donat know anything about the literary skill required to do screenplays. Choice E is irrelevant; it doesnat matter whether the average reader is familiar with the terms of literary criticism; it only matters that the bookas author is familiar with these terms.

Back to problem Problem 18: Temperament Choice E. This is an example of proof by selected instances. Each person a" Steve and John a" will simply choose examples which support his intended claim. Steve picks red-haired people who have bad tempers to support his claim that red-haired people are bad tempered. John picks red-haired people who have good tempers to support his claim that red-haired people are not bad-tempered. The fact that the number of red-haired people (choice A) that one person knows is more or less than the number of red-haired people that the other person knows has no clear effect on reconciling the two statements. In fact, it is quite possible that the percentage of red-haired people that each knows is quite close, say five percent. After all thatas the magic of percentages as opposed to numbers a" percentages express things in relative terms. In choice B, it is only plausible that the number of red-haired people both Steve and John know would be, in aggregate, less than the total of non-red-haired people both know. Confirmation of this likely reality will not reconcile the two seemingly contradictory statements.

It is also unclear whether choice C has any effect. Any mis-a.s.sessments may prove net positive or net negative or may have a counterbalancing effect. It is almost axiomatic that both Steve and John know of friends who are not red-haired and have bad tempers, but this will do nothing to reconcile the contradictory statements, so choice D is out. Note that the procedure for actually proving whether or not red hair is correlated with bad temper falls within the context of experimental design. Refer to Hypothesis Testing in chapter 3.

Authoras note: Here is a follow-up problem which mimics a true-to-life scenario. Surveys or questionnaires completed and returned may not be representative of respondentsa viewpoints in general if surveys or questionnaires not returned would have yielded conflicting information.

President: aIam worried about the recent turnover in MegaCorp. If employees leave our company disgruntled, such negative feelings can hurt our reputation in the marketplace.a Human Resources Manager: aYour concerns are unfounded. As part of our post-employment follow-up process, we send questionnaires to each employee within thirty days of his or her leaving the company. These questionnaires seek honest answers and remind employees that all responses will be kept confidential. Of the last 100 employees who left our company, 25 have responded, and only 5 people have mentioned having had any negative employment experience.a The Human Resource Manageras argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it fails to acknowledge the possibility that A) Opinions expressed in such questionnaires are not always indicative of how employees actually felt.

B) Many of those who harbored truly negative feelings about their employment experience at MegaCorp did not respond to the questionnaire.

C) The Public Relations firm Quantum, recently hired by MegaCorp has successfully designed several programs specially aimed at boosting the companyas public image.

D) Questions asking about negative employment experiences have been placed at the end, not at the beginning, of the questionnaire.

E) The response rate in general for questionnaires is 10 percent, meaning that only 1 in 10 questionnaires can be expected to be completed and returned.

The correct answer is choice B. If those former employees of MegaCorp who harbor very negative feeling about the company remain silent (i.e., they donat respond to the questionnaire), then such views have been omitted from inclusion. Choice A may also be a concern, but it is impossible to tell whether it refers to employees who felt much better about their employment experience or much worse (we canat a.s.sume employees necessarily felt worse!). In choice C, we canat a.s.sume that the public relations efforts of Quantum have any affect on the employees who have left the company; besides, designing and implementing programs are two different things. The placement of questions within the questionnaire (choice D) is likely irrelevant or its impact inconclusive. Choice E strengthens the Human Resource Manageras claim because the response rate achieved by MegaCorp (i.e., 25a"100 = 25%) is greater than the general response rate of 10 percent; of course, the higher the response rate the better.

Back to problem Cause-and-Effect a.s.sumptions Problem 19: Cyclist Choice C. This argument turns correlation into causation. There is likely a high correlation between low body fat and being a world-cla.s.s cyclist. But there may well be a high correlation among other variables as well. For example, a high correlation also likely exists among muscular strength and world-cla.s.s cycling, technical skills (maneuvering a bike) and world-cla.s.s cycling, and being a world-cla.s.s cyclist.

This problem can also be solved as an, aif a thena type problem. The original reads, aIf one is a world-cla.s.s cyclist, then one has 4 to 11 percent body fat.a When the aif a thena statement is erroneously reversed and the argument becomes, aIf one has 4 to 11 percent body fat, then one can be a world-cla.s.s cyclist.a Having low body fat is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for being a world-cla.s.s cyclist. aIf a thena type statements are discussed in chapter 5.

Back to problem Problem 20: SAT Scores Choice B. The argument basically says that SAT scores have gone up because students are better test takers, not because students possess better academic skills. Are students smarter or just better test takers?

Choices A and E may appear tricky. Actually the author doesnat deny his opponentsa figures or suggest his evidence is flawed. In fact, the author agrees with his opponentsa facts (test scores are getting higher). What the author is saying is that his opponentsa evidence is incomplete, not flawed. Choice D is not correct. The argument is not flawed due to circular reasoning. In circular reasoning, a conclusion is based on evidence, and that same piece of evidence is based on the conclusion. Choice D in this problem is incorrect for the same reason that choice E is incorrect in the previous problem, Cyclist. An argument that a.s.sumes what it seeks to establish is a circular argument.