Seeing The Elephant Part 10

83 Union of Concerned Scientists, "House Reaches Historic Breakthrough on Fuel Economy," news release, December 3, 2007, Union of Concerned Scientists, "House Reaches Historic Breakthrough on Fuel Economy," news release, December 3, 2007, http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/house-reaches.html.

84 Janet Swane et al., "American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security," Worldwatch Inst.i.tute and Center for American Progress, September 2006, 21, Janet Swane et al., "American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security," Worldwatch Inst.i.tute and Center for American Progress, September 2006, 21, http://images1.americanprogress.org/i180web20037/americanenergynow/AmericanEnergy.pdf.

85 "Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth: The Energy Productivity Opportunity," McKinsey Global Inst.i.tute, May 2007, 15. "Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth: The Energy Productivity Opportunity," McKinsey Global Inst.i.tute, May 2007, 15.

86 National Renewable Energy Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Fuel from the Sky: Solar Power's Potential for Western Energy Supply Fuel from the Sky: Solar Power's Potential for Western Energy Supply, July 2002, SR-550- 32160, 47-52 pa.s.sim.

87 Ken Zweibel, James Mason, and Vasilis Fthenakis, "A Solar Grand Plan," Ken Zweibel, James Mason, and Vasilis Fthenakis, "A Solar Grand Plan," Scientific American Scientific American, December 2007, http://www.sciamcom/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan.

88 Ibid. Ibid.

89 The NREL's web site at The NREL's web site at www.nrel.gov has some of the latest data on renewable energy development. has some of the latest data on renewable energy development.

90 "New Solar Photovoltaic Cell Efficiency Record: 42.8%," "New Solar Photovoltaic Cell Efficiency Record: 42.8%," FuturePundit FuturePundit, July 23, 2007. See http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/004418.html.

91 Martin Feldstein, "Reducing America's Dependence on Foreign Oil Supplies," presented at the American Economic a.s.sociation meetings, January 2003, 5. Martin Feldstein, "Reducing America's Dependence on Foreign Oil Supplies," presented at the American Economic a.s.sociation meetings, January 2003, 5.

92 "Transportation Energy Facts," Energy Information Administration, "Transportation Energy Facts," Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation.html.

93 See Zweibel, Mason, and Fthenakis, "Solar Grand Plan." See Zweibel, Mason, and Fthenakis, "Solar Grand Plan."

94 Ibid. Ibid.

Chapter 4: Defense and Security: Preventing the Next War, Not Fighting the Last 1 Norman Angell, Norman Angell, The Great Illusion The Great Illusion (New York: Knickerbocker Press, 1913), ix-xiii pa.s.sim, 381-382. (New York: Knickerbocker Press, 1913), ix-xiii pa.s.sim, 381-382.

2 Thomas L. Friedman, Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat The World Is Flat (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005), 421. This was an offshoot of Friedman's Golden Arches Theory, which argued that countries that both have McDonald's restaurants do not fight wars against each other. Some note that the Dell Theory evolved as the result of the Israeli-Palestinian fighting that undermined Friedman's original Golden Arches Theory. (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005), 421. This was an offshoot of Friedman's Golden Arches Theory, which argued that countries that both have McDonald's restaurants do not fight wars against each other. Some note that the Dell Theory evolved as the result of the Israeli-Palestinian fighting that undermined Friedman's original Golden Arches Theory.

3 Trade protectionism and nationalism were fed by escalating militarization, which, in turn, exacerbated tensions and stoked further anxieties. The Russo-j.a.panese war of 1904-1906, in which upstart j.a.pan used its new British-designed fleet to soundly beat old Russian boats, and the 1906 introduction of the big-gunned Trade protectionism and nationalism were fed by escalating militarization, which, in turn, exacerbated tensions and stoked further anxieties. The Russo-j.a.panese war of 1904-1906, in which upstart j.a.pan used its new British-designed fleet to soundly beat old Russian boats, and the 1906 introduction of the big-gunned Dreadnought Dreadnought cla.s.s by Britain sparked a naval arms race with Germany. Even the United States, isolated as it was from Continental affairs at this time, responded with its own s.h.i.+pbuilding program. cla.s.s by Britain sparked a naval arms race with Germany. Even the United States, isolated as it was from Continental affairs at this time, responded with its own s.h.i.+pbuilding program.

4 Services include schools (e.g., madra.s.sas) and insurance (e.g., payments for suicide bomber families). Services include schools (e.g., madra.s.sas) and insurance (e.g., payments for suicide bomber families).

5 Graham Allison, "How to Stop Nuclear Terror," Graham Allison, "How to Stop Nuclear Terror," Foreign Affairs Foreign Affairs, January-February 2004, 2.

6 University of Colorado at Boulder, "Regional Nuclear War Would Trigger Ma.s.s Death, Devastating Climate Change," news release, December 11, 2006. University of Colorado at Boulder, "Regional Nuclear War Would Trigger Ma.s.s Death, Devastating Climate Change," news release, December 11, 2006.

7 Ibid. Ibid.

8 Ibid. Ibid.

9 Allison, "How to Stop Nuclear Terror," 2. Allison, "How to Stop Nuclear Terror," 2.

10 Bertil Lentner, "North Korea's Missile Trade Helps Fund Its Nuclear Program," Bertil Lentner, "North Korea's Missile Trade Helps Fund Its Nuclear Program," YaleGlobal Online YaleGlobal Online, May 5, 2003, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=1546.

11 Ibid. Ibid.

12 Abraham Wagner, lecture, Columbia University, New York, September 26, 2007. Abraham Wagner, lecture, Columbia University, New York, September 26, 2007.

13 "The Terror Next Time?" "The Terror Next Time?" Economist Economist, October 4, 2001.

14 Joseph Cirincione and Andrew Wade, "Get Smart on Ballistic Missiles," Joseph Cirincione and Andrew Wade, "Get Smart on Ballistic Missiles," Center for American Progress Center for American Progress, May 8, 2007, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/05/missiles.html.

15 "Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities," "Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, August 23, 2004, 4.

16 Cirincione and Wade, "Get Smart on Ballistic Missiles." Cirincione and Wade, "Get Smart on Ballistic Missiles."

17 "China's Ballistic Missile Update 2004," "China's Ballistic Missile Update 2004," Risk Report,Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control Risk Report,Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control 11, no. 1 (November-December 2004), 11, no. 1 (November-December 2004), http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/china/ChinaBMupdate.html.

18 Ibid. Ibid.

19 Ibid. Ibid.

20 "China-U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy," "China-U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, 2007, 6.

21 Ibid. Ibid.

22 Richard Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations 1998-2005," Richard Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations 1998-2005," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, RL33696, October 23, 2006.

23 "Hard to Make Friends," "Hard to Make Friends," Economist Economist, January 17, 2008, http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10534464.

24 Ann Calvaresi Barr, "Export Controls: State and Commerce Have Not Taken Basic Steps to Better Ensure U.S. Interests Are Protected," Government Accountability Office, Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Oversight of Government Management, the Federal Workforce, and the District of Columbia, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate, April 24, 2008.This testimony cited that the number of arms licensing officers was at the same level in fiscal years 2003 and 2006, despite an almost 20 percent increase in cases over that period. Ann Calvaresi Barr, "Export Controls: State and Commerce Have Not Taken Basic Steps to Better Ensure U.S. Interests Are Protected," Government Accountability Office, Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Oversight of Government Management, the Federal Workforce, and the District of Columbia, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate, April 24, 2008.This testimony cited that the number of arms licensing officers was at the same level in fiscal years 2003 and 2006, despite an almost 20 percent increase in cases over that period.

25 Mitsuro Donowaki, "The Challenge of Terrorism for International Security and Disarmament: Global and Regional Impact," lecture, Fifth UN Conference on Disarmament, Kyoto, j.a.pan,August 7, 2002. Mitsuro Donowaki, "The Challenge of Terrorism for International Security and Disarmament: Global and Regional Impact," lecture, Fifth UN Conference on Disarmament, Kyoto, j.a.pan,August 7, 2002.

26 "Somali Militia Group 'Surrounded,'" "Somali Militia Group 'Surrounded,'" BBC News BBC News, January 4, 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6230809.stm.

27 John Diamond, "Small Weapons Prove the Real Threat in Iraq," John Diamond, "Small Weapons Prove the Real Threat in Iraq," USA Today USA Today, September 29, 2003, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-09-29-cover-small-arms_x.htm.

28 Owen Bowcott and Richard Norton-Taylor,"War on Terror Fuels Small Arms Trade," Owen Bowcott and Richard Norton-Taylor,"War on Terror Fuels Small Arms Trade," Guardian Guardian, October 10, 2003, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/oct/10/armstrade.richardnortontaylor.

29 Lanka Business Online,October 10,2003, Lanka Business Online,October 10,2003,http://www.lankabusinessonline.com.

30 Bowcott and Norton-Taylor,"War on Terror Fuels Small Arms Trade." Bowcott and Norton-Taylor,"War on Terror Fuels Small Arms Trade."

31 Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, The Political Economy of Armed Conflict: Beyond Greed and Grievance The Political Economy of Armed Conflict: Beyond Greed and Grievance (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2003), 2. (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2003), 2.

32 "Frequently Asked Questions," Small Arms Survey, "Frequently Asked Questions," Small Arms Survey, http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files/sas/home/FAQ.html#FAQ2 (last accessed June 3, 2008). (last accessed June 3, 2008).

33 Katherine Heine, "Small Arms Threaten Sri Lanka's Stability," Reuters, September 30, 2003. Katherine Heine, "Small Arms Threaten Sri Lanka's Stability," Reuters, September 30, 2003.

34 Ballentine and Sherman, Ballentine and Sherman, Political Economy of Armed Conflict Political Economy of Armed Conflict, 82.

35 Kofi Annan, "Small Arms, Big Problems," lecture, United Nations Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects, New York, July 9, 2001. Kofi Annan, "Small Arms, Big Problems," lecture, United Nations Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects, New York, July 9, 2001.

36 For the latest news on such programs, see the web site at For the latest news on such programs, see the web site at http://www.gunpolicy.org, which includes a daily news feed on gun control efforts.

37 Emira Woods, "Somalia," Emira Woods, "Somalia," Foreign Policy in Focus Foreign Policy in Focus 2, no. 19 (1997), Interhemisphere Resource Center and Inst.i.tute for Policy Studies, 2, no. 19 (1997), Interhemisphere Resource Center and Inst.i.tute for Policy Studies, http://www.fpif.org/pdf/vol2/19ifsoma.pdf.

38 Frances Steward, "Root Causes of Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," Frances Steward, "Root Causes of Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," British Medical Journal British Medical Journal (February 9, 2002), (February 9, 2002), http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1122271.

39 Ibid. Ibid.

40 Ibid. Ibid.

41 Philip Bobbitt, "Get Ready for the Next Long War," Philip Bobbitt, "Get Ready for the Next Long War," Time Time, September 9, 2002, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1003220-1,00.html/.

42 "Port Security Task Force Report," Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, December 2006, "Port Security Task Force Report," Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, December 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/12301/port_security_task_force_report.html.

43 Ibid. Ibid.

44 Ibid. Ibid.

45 "Opinion Leaders Turn Cautious, Public Looks Homeward," America's Place in the World Survey Results, Pew Research Center, November 17, 2005, "Opinion Leaders Turn Cautious, Public Looks Homeward," America's Place in the World Survey Results, Pew Research Center, November 17, 2005, http://people-press.org/report/263/opinion-leaders-turn-cautious-public-looks-homeward.

46 Anup Shah, "World Military Spending," Anup Shah, "World Military Spending," Global Issues Global Issues, http://www.globalissues.org/Geopolitics/ArmsTrade/Spending.asp#WorldMilitarySpending (last accessed June 3, 2008). (last accessed June 3, 2008).

47 "China's Defense Budget," "China's Defense Budget," Global Security Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm (last accessed June 3, 2008). (last accessed June 3, 2008).

48 Tim Johnson, "China Announces Largest Military Budget Ever," Tim Johnson, "China Announces Largest Military Budget Ever," McClatchy Newswire McClatchy Newswire, March 4, 2008, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/world/story/29351.html.

49 "India's Military Budget," "India's Military Budget,"Global Security,http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/india/budget.htm (last accessed June 3, 2008). (last accessed June 3, 2008).

50 Christopher h.e.l.lmann, "The Runaway Military Budget: An a.n.a.lysis," Christopher h.e.l.lmann, "The Runaway Military Budget: An a.n.a.lysis," Friends Committee on National Legislation Was.h.i.+ngton Newsletter Friends Committee on National Legislation Was.h.i.+ngton Newsletter, no. 705, March 2006, 3.

51 Ibid., 2. Ibid., 2.

52 Chalmers Johnson, Chalmers Johnson, Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic (New York: Holt Paperback, 2008). (New York: Holt Paperback, 2008).

53 Ibid. Ibid.

54 Special thanks to President Clinton for his candid remarks in response to my questions in March 2008. He said that rebuilding the U.S. military and intelligence from the ground up would be one of the key responsibilities for any new president in the 2008 election. Special thanks to President Clinton for his candid remarks in response to my questions in March 2008. He said that rebuilding the U.S. military and intelligence from the ground up would be one of the key responsibilities for any new president in the 2008 election.

55 Will Dunham, "Strained U.S. National Guard Has Hurricane Relief Role," Reuters, August 30, 2005. Will Dunham, "Strained U.S. National Guard Has Hurricane Relief Role," Reuters, August 30, 2005.

56 Steve Coll, "Military Conflict," Steve Coll, "Military Conflict," New Yorker, New Yorker, April 14, 2008. April 14, 2008.

57 National Security Archive, National Security Archive, http://www.gwu.edu/-nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB214/index.htm (last accessed June 10, 2008). (last accessed June 10, 2008).

58 Mark Thompson, "America's Medicated Army," Mark Thompson, "America's Medicated Army," Time Time, June 5, 2008.

59 "Fighting Fires," "Fighting Fires," Economist Economist, February 16, 2007, http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8696412.

60 h.e.l.lmann, "Runaway Military Budget," 2. h.e.l.lmann, "Runaway Military Budget," 2.

61 "FY2009 Intelligence Budget," "FY2009 Intelligence Budget," Global Security Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/budget/index.html. Note that this is an estimate, because intelligence budgets are cla.s.sified. The last disclosed budget, for 2007, was $43.5 billion.

62 The 9/11 Commission Report The 9/11 Commission Report, "Executive Summary," September 2006, 2, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/911/pdf/execsummary.pdf.

63 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) of the Department of State, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Security Agency (NSA), National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Army Intelligence, Navy Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence, Marine Corps Intelligence, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Coast Guard (CG), Treasury Department, Energy Department, Drug Enforcement Agency. See: "Intelligence Issues for Congress," Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) of the Department of State, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Security Agency (NSA), National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Army Intelligence, Navy Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence, Marine Corps Intelligence, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Coast Guard (CG), Treasury Department, Energy Department, Drug Enforcement Agency. See: "Intelligence Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress, CRS Report for Congress, RL33539, March 10, 2008, 2-3. RL33539, March 10, 2008, 2-3.

64 The 9/11 Commission Report The 9/11 Commission Report, "Executive Summary," September 2006, 2, http://www.gpoaccess.gov/911/pdf/execsummary.pdf.

65 Ibid., 2-3. Ibid., 2-3.

66 "The National Security Strategy of the United States of America," National Security Council, September 2002, "The National Security Strategy of the United States of America," National Security Council, September 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html.

67 "Intelligence Issues for Congress," "Intelligence Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, RL33539, March 10, 2008, 13.

68 "Iraq Coalition Casualty Count," "Iraq Coalition Casualty Count," http://icasualties.org/oif/.

69 "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), November 2007. "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), November 2007.

70 "Iran Weapons Project 'Continued,'" "Iran Weapons Project 'Continued,'" BBC News BBC News, February 26, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7264090.stm.

71 "Intelligence Issues for Congress," "Intelligence Issues for Congress," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, March 10, 2008, 2-11.

72 Interpol, "Interpol: An Overview," Fact Sheet COM/FS/2008-03/ GI-01. Interpol, "Interpol: An Overview," Fact Sheet COM/FS/2008-03/ GI-01.

73 Eric Schmitt, "Experts See Gains Against Asian Terror Networks," Eric Schmitt, "Experts See Gains Against Asian Terror Networks," New York Times New York Times, June 8, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/world/asia/09terror.html?pagewanted=print. In fact, Azhari Husin, one of the most feared bomb makers in Asia, was killed by Indonesia's elite ant.i.terrorism unit in 2005.

74 Testimony of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, February 8, 2007, Testimony of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, February 8, 2007, http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2007/RiceTestimony070208.pdf.

75 See See www.nypds.h.i.+eld.org for more information on the NYPD s.h.i.+eld program. for more information on the NYPD s.h.i.+eld program.

76 Adam Gopnik,"The Human Bomb:The Sarkozy Regime Begins," Adam Gopnik,"The Human Bomb:The Sarkozy Regime Begins," New Yorker New Yorker, August 27, 2007, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/08/27/070827fa_fact_gopnik?currentPage=all.

77 "U.S. Public Diplomacy: Background and the 9/11 Commission Recommendations," "U.S. Public Diplomacy: Background and the 9/11 Commission Recommendations," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, 32607, October 19, 2006, 1.

78 "The Budget in Brief: Fiscal Year 2009," U.S. Department of State, February 4, 2008, "The Budget in Brief: Fiscal Year 2009," U.S. Department of State, February 4, 2008, http://www.state.gov/s/d/rm/rls/bib/2009/pdf/.

79 "Straight Talk on Staffing and Resources," American Foreign Service a.s.sociation, "Straight Talk on Staffing and Resources," American Foreign Service a.s.sociation, http://www.afsa.org/040908Staffing.cfm (last accessed June 9, 2008). (last accessed June 9, 2008).

80 "Diplomacy for the 21st Century: Transformational Diplomacy," "Diplomacy for the 21st Century: Transformational Diplomacy," CRS Report for Congress CRS Report for Congress, 34141, January 29, 2008, 11.

81 Fred Kaplan, "What It Will Take to Heal U.S. Diplomacy," Fred Kaplan, "What It Will Take to Heal U.S. Diplomacy," Slate Slate, March 30, 2008, http://www.slate.com/id/2187579/.

82 Sheryl Gay s...o...b..rg and Jim Rutenberg, "Bush a.s.sails 'Appeas.e.m.e.nt,' Touching Off Storm," May 16, 2008, Sheryl Gay s...o...b..rg and Jim Rutenberg, "Bush a.s.sails 'Appeas.e.m.e.nt,' Touching Off Storm," May 16, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16obama.html?ref=world.

83 Anne Gearan, a.s.sociated Press, "Rice Less Optimistic about Quick Peace Deal," Anne Gearan, a.s.sociated Press, "Rice Less Optimistic about Quick Peace Deal," Yahoo! News Yahoo! News, June 3, 2008, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080603/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_israel.

84 Condoleezza Rice, "On-the-Record Briefing to Press in London," U.S. Department of State, London, United Kingdom, March 1, 2005. Condoleezza Rice, "On-the-Record Briefing to Press in London," U.S. Department of State, London, United Kingdom, March 1, 2005.

85 "Russia's Defense Budget," "Russia's Defense Budget," Global Security Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/mo-budget.htm (last accessed June 3, 2008). (last accessed June 3, 2008).

86 "India and China Launch War Game," "India and China Launch War Game," BBC News BBC News, December 20, 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7153179.stm.

87 Andrew Tully, "Central Asia: Is It Time to Withdraw U.S. Troops?" Andrew Tully, "Central Asia: Is It Time to Withdraw U.S. Troops?" Radio Free Europe Radio Free Europe, July 7,2005, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/07/D14A9FDA-0EF0-4E6E-B5AF-AF28C63A2C08.html/.