Traffic_ Why We Drive The Way We Do Part 11

automatic reponses: Irene V. Blaire and Mahzarin R. Banaji, "Automatic and Controlled Processes in Stereotype Priming," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol. 70, no. 6 (1996), pp. 114263. vol. 70, no. 6 (1996), pp. 114263.

waiting in line: See David Maister, "The Psychology of Waiting in Line," available at http://davidmaister.com/articles/1/52/.

on the highway itself: L., Zhang, F. Xie, and D. Levinson, "Variation of the Subjective Value of Travel Time Under Different Driving Conditions." Paper presented at the Eighty-four Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, January 913, 2005, Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.

groups often move faster: See David A. Hensher, "Influence of Vehicle Occupancy on the Valuation of Car Driver's Travel Time Savings: Identifying Important Behavioural Segments," Working Paper ITLS-WP-06-011, May 2006, Inst.i.tute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney.

with our perception of time: A curious example of this are the new "smart" elevator systems being installed in high-rise buildings around the world. Instead of simply calling an elevator, users are grouped according to which floor they want. In theory, this speeds up the average journey by 50 percent, but it also prompts impatience in people who see elevators bound for other floors arriving and leaving before theirs; they think they are actually waiting longer. See Clive Thompson, "Smart Elevators," New York Times, New York Times, December 10, 2006. December 10, 2006.

"At least I'm better off than you": See Rongrong Zhou and Dilip Soman, "Looking Back: Exploring the Psychology of Queuing and the Effect of the Number of People Behind," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research, vol. 29 (March 2003). vol. 29 (March 2003).

"irritated with that": On the differences in queue systems between Wendy's and McDonald's, there is another factor to consider: customers' perceptions of the length length of the line. McDonald's says that people will renege on a line that looks longer; hence it prefers shorter multiple lines, despite Wendy's claims that a single line is faster. See "Merchants Mull the Long and Short of Lines," of the line. McDonald's says that people will renege on a line that looks longer; hence it prefers shorter multiple lines, despite Wendy's claims that a single line is faster. See "Merchants Mull the Long and Short of Lines," Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal, September 3, 1998. September 3, 1998.

an eighty-minute drive: The lane-changing experiment was conducted by the CBC's The lane-changing experiment was conducted by the CBC's Fifth Estate. Fifth Estate. Details are available at Details are available at http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/roadwarriors/research.htm.

did pa.s.sing them: Donald A. Redelmeier and Robert J. Tibs.h.i.+rani, "Why Cars in the Next Lane Seem to Go Faster," Nature, Nature, vol. 35, September 2, 1999. vol. 35, September 2, 1999.

at the forward roadway: See, for example, Alexei R. Tsyganov, Randy B. Machemehl, Nicholas M. Warrenchuk, and Yue w.a.n.g, "Before-After Comparison of Edgeline Effects on Rural Two-Lane Highways," Report No. FHWA/TX-07/0-50902 (Austin: Center for Transportation Research, University of Texas at Austin, 2006).

stay in our lane: See, for example, D. Salvucci, A. Liu, and E. R. Boer, "Control and Monitoring During Lane Changes," in Vision in Vehicles: 9, Vision in Vehicles: 9, conference proceedings (Brisbane, Australia, 2001). conference proceedings (Brisbane, Australia, 2001).

looking in the rearview mirror: The forward and rearview percentages are drawn from M. A. Brackstone and B. J. Waterson, "Are We Looking Where We Are Going? An Exploratory Examination of Eye Movement in High Speed Driving." Paper 04-2602, Proceedings of the 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Proceedings of the 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board (Was.h.i.+ngton D.C., January 2004). (Was.h.i.+ngton D.C., January 2004).

"loss aversion": The notion of loss aversion was first hypothesized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, "Prospect Theory: An a.n.a.lysis of Decision Under Risk," Econometrica, Econometrica, vol. 47 (1979), pp. 26391. vol. 47 (1979), pp. 26391.

sensitive to loss: See Sabrina M. Tom, Craig R. Fox, Christopher Trepel, and Russell A. Poldrack, "The Neural Basis of Loss Aversion in Decision-Making Under Risk," Science, Science, vol. 315, no. 5811 (26 January 2007), pp. 51518. See also William J. Gehring and Adrian R. Willoughby, "The Medial Frontal Cortex and the Rapid Processing of Monetary Gains and Losses," vol. 315, no. 5811 (26 January 2007), pp. 51518. See also William J. Gehring and Adrian R. Willoughby, "The Medial Frontal Cortex and the Rapid Processing of Monetary Gains and Losses," Science, Science, vol. 295, no. 5563 (2002), pp. 227982. vol. 295, no. 5563 (2002), pp. 227982.

"endowment effect": D. Kanheman, J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler, "Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98 (1990) pp. 132548. vol. 98 (1990) pp. 132548.

to the person leaving it: The parking lot studies were chronicled in R. Barry Ruback and Daniel Juieng, "Territorial Defense in Parking Lots: Retaliation Against Waiting Drivers," Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, vol. 27, no. 9 (1997), pp. 82134. The authors suggest another theory: that fighting for the "symbolic value" of the parking s.p.a.ce when it is threatened by an intruder helps give the parking spot owner a feeling of heightened control over the situation. This is why, they suggest, people will take even longer to vacate a spot when the waiting driver honks. It is a threat to their "sense of freedom," and the best response is to simply stay longer in the parking s.p.a.ce, thus a.s.serting that sense of freedom. vol. 27, no. 9 (1997), pp. 82134. The authors suggest another theory: that fighting for the "symbolic value" of the parking s.p.a.ce when it is threatened by an intruder helps give the parking spot owner a feeling of heightened control over the situation. This is why, they suggest, people will take even longer to vacate a spot when the waiting driver honks. It is a threat to their "sense of freedom," and the best response is to simply stay longer in the parking s.p.a.ce, thus a.s.serting that sense of freedom.

involved lane changes: Basav Sen, John D. Smith, and Wa.s.sim G. Najm, "a.n.a.lysis of Lane Change Crashes," DOT-VNTSC-NHTSA-02-03, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, March 2003.

how many were discretionary?: One study that compared crashes to traffic volume (obtained via loop-inductor data) found that most lane-change crashes occurred, perhaps not surprisingly, when the variability of highway speeds across lanes was highest-in other words, the time when most people would find it advantageous to change lanes. See Thomas F. Golob, Wilfred W. Recker, and Veronica M. Alvarez, "Freeway Safety as a Function of Traffic Flow," Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, vol. 36 (2004), pp. 93346. vol. 36 (2004), pp. 93346.

decisions we make while driving: At Cooper University Hospital in New Jersey, for example, doctors estimate that 60 percent of the trauma intensive care unit patients are the victims of car crashes; see Geoff Mulvihill, "In Corzine's Hospital Unit, Handling Terrible Accidents Routine," Newsday, Newsday, April 23, 2007. April 23, 2007.

work zones: The work-zone fatality statistic comes from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/wz/wz_facts.htm).

"merging difficulties": From Understanding Road Rage: Implementation Plan for Promising Mitigation Measures, Understanding Road Rage: Implementation Plan for Promising Mitigation Measures, by Carol H. Walters and Scott A. c.o.o.ner (Texas Transportation Inst.i.tute, November 2001). by Carol H. Walters and Scott A. c.o.o.ner (Texas Transportation Inst.i.tute, November 2001).

lane that will close: Information on work-zone merge strategies was drawn from a number of useful sources, including "Dynamic Late Merge Control Concept for Work Zones on Rural Freeways," by Patrick T. McCoy and Geza Pesti, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nebraska.

smoothly through the work zone: The TRL data comes from a report by G. A. Coe, I. J. Burrow, and J. E. Collins, "Trials of 'Merge in Turn' Signs at Major Roadworks." Unpublished project report, PR/TT/043/95, N207, October 30, 1997.

exactly where to merge: For a sample discussion of U.K. merging ambiguity, see http://www.pistonheads.com/ga.s.sing/topic.asp?f=154&h=&t=256729 Retrieved on December 1, 2007. Retrieved on December 1, 2007.

which is also safer: See Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, "Methods and Procedures to Reduce Motorist Delays in European Work Zones," FHWA-PL-00-001, October 2000.

One important caveat: Another simulation study showed that the Late Merge strategy was more effective when two lanes narrowed to one than when three narrowed to two. According to one report, "A possible explanation may be evident in the way vehicles appeared to be behaving in the simulations. When simulation animations of the 3-to-2 lane configurations of the late merge control were viewed, it appeared that vehicles driving in the middle lane would move to the far left lane to avoid merging from the closing lane. This interaction slowed vehicles in the far left lane enough that throughput may have been significantly reduced." Evaluation of the Late Merge Workzone Traffic Control Strategy, Evaluation of the Late Merge Workzone Traffic Control Strategy, by Andrew G. Beacher, Michael D. Fontaine, and Nicholas J. Garber. Virginia Transportation Research Council, August 2004, VTRC 05-R6. by Andrew G. Beacher, Michael D. Fontaine, and Nicholas J. Garber. Virginia Transportation Research Council, August 2004, VTRC 05-R6.

summer of 2003: The Minnesota Dynamic Late Merge information was drawn from two reports, "Dynamic Late Merge System Evaluation: Initial Deployment on I-10," prepared by URS for the Minnesota Department of Transportation," and a follow-up study, "Evaluation of 2004 Dynamic Late Merge System for the Minnesota Department of Transportation," also prepared by URS.

blocked by trucks: Garber, in a telephone conversation, also noted the particular tendency of trucks to perform blocking maneuvers. He found that Late Merge worked best when the total volume of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream was less than 20 percent.

Chapter Two: You're Not as Good a Driver as You Think You Are fifteen hundred "subskills": This estimate comes from A. J. McKnight and B. Adams, Driver Education Task a.n.a.lysis, Driver Education Task a.n.a.lysis, vol. 1, vol. 1, Task Descriptions, Task Descriptions, Was.h.i.+ngton D.C.: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 1970. Was.h.i.+ngton D.C.: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 1970.

twenty per mile: Leslie George Norman, "Road Traffic Accidents: Epidemiology, Control and Prevention" (World Health Organization, Public Health Papers no. 12, 1962), p. 51.

440 words, per minute: This figure comes from William Ewald, Street Graphics Street Graphics (Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.: American Society of Landscape Architects Foundation), p. 32. (Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.: American Society of Landscape Architects Foundation), p. 32.

"avoiding obstacles": See Urban Challenge Rules Urban Challenge Rules (Arlington, Va.: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, July 10, 2007). (Arlington, Va.: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, July 10, 2007).

in the future: The cognitive scientist Donald D. Hoffman points out that an average traffic scene of a tree-lined street with cars creates a mult.i.tude of problems for computer intelligence, as a.n.a.lysis by researcher Scott Richman has revealed. Hoffman notes, "Several problems that Richman faced are evident from this picture: clutter, trees moving in the wind, shadows dancing on the road, cars in front hiding cars behind. A sophisticated a.n.a.lysis of motion, using several frames of motion at once, allows Richman's system to distinguish the motion of cars from that of trees and shadows.... [Richman's] system can trackcars through shadows, a feat that is trivial for our visual intelligence but, heretofore, quite difficult for computer vision systems. It's easy to underestimate our sophistication at constructing visual motion. That is, until we try to duplicate that sophistication on a computer. Then it seems impossible to overestimate it." From Donald D. Hoffman, Visual Intelligence Visual Intelligence (New York: W. W. Nortion, 1998), p. 170. (New York: W. W. Nortion, 1998), p. 170.

"caution for the caution": See, for example, Don Leavitt, "Insights at the Intersection," Traffic Management and Engineering, Traffic Management and Engineering, October 2003. October 2003.

sooner than necessary: H. Kolla, M. Badera, and K. W. Axhausen, "Driver Behavior During Flas.h.i.+ng Green Before Amber: A Comparative Study," than necessary: H. Kolla, M. Badera, and K. W. Axhausen, "Driver Behavior During Flas.h.i.+ng Green Before Amber: A Comparative Study," Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, vol. 36, no. 2 (March 2004), pp. 27380. vol. 36, no. 2 (March 2004), pp. 27380.

without the flas.h.i.+ng green: D. Mahalel and D. M. Zaidel, "Safety Evaluation of a Flas.h.i.+ng Green Light in a Traffic Signal," Traffic Engineering and Control, Traffic Engineering and Control, vol. 26, no. 2 (1985), pp. 7981. vol. 26, no. 2 (1985), pp. 7981.

chances to crash: This point is made in L. Staplin, K. W. Gish, L. E. Decina, K. H. Lococo, D. L. Harkey, M. S. Tarawneh, R. Lyles, D. Mace, and P. Garvey in Synthesis of Human Factors Research on Older Drivers and Highway Safety, Synthesis of Human Factors Research on Older Drivers and Highway Safety, vol. 2, Publication No. FHWA-RD-97-095, 1997. Available at vol. 2, Publication No. FHWA-RD-97-095, 1997. Available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tfhrc/safety/pubs/97094/97094.htm.

"b.u.mp itself up the queue": One might think that robot drivers would be free from the complicated psychological dynamics that trouble humans at intersections; yet, perhaps like humans, it all depends on how they are wired. "Robots can be more aggressive or more conservative," Montemerlo told me. You might, for example, "program your robot to always ignore the queuing order and always go first, to be a pushy robot." But whether or not this strategy works depends on how the other robots have been programmed. Four pushy robots at a four-way stop could get ugly quickly.

"They slow everyone down": This recalls a comment from T. C. Willet's Criminal on the Road: A Study of Serious Motoring Offences and Those Who Commit Them Criminal on the Road: A Study of Serious Motoring Offences and Those Who Commit Them (London: Tavistock Publications, 1964). As Willet noted: "Some years ago a contest was arranged between two cars to be driven across a city area. One driver had to observe all signs, traffic lights, and speed regulations. The other was allowed to ignore all three if he could do so without endangering the lives of other road users. The law-breaking motorist arrived at this destination just-and only just-ahead of his law-abiding antagonist" (p. 129). (London: Tavistock Publications, 1964). As Willet noted: "Some years ago a contest was arranged between two cars to be driven across a city area. One driver had to observe all signs, traffic lights, and speed regulations. The other was allowed to ignore all three if he could do so without endangering the lives of other road users. The law-breaking motorist arrived at this destination just-and only just-ahead of his law-abiding antagonist" (p. 129).

"without a hitch": The eBay quote comes from Theresa Howard, "Ads Pump up eBay Community with Good Feelings," USA Today, USA Today, October 17, 2004. October 17, 2004.

more in revenue: Paul Resnick, Richard Zeckhauser, John Swanson, and Kate Lockwood, "The Value of Reputation on eBay: A Controlled Experiment." John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Working Paper No. RWP03-007.

(provided it's authentic): See, for example, John Morgan and Jennifer Brown, "Reputation in Online Auctions: The Market for Trust," California Management Review, California Management Review, Fall 2006. About 98 percent of feedback on eBay is positive, which has led economist Axel Ockenfels of the University of Cologne in Germany to suspect that people may be afraid of negative retaliatory feedback. Ockenfels has worked with eBay to introduce mechanisms that allow users to post honest, negative feedback with less fear of reprisal. See Christoph Uhlhaas, "Is Greed Good?" Fall 2006. About 98 percent of feedback on eBay is positive, which has led economist Axel Ockenfels of the University of Cologne in Germany to suspect that people may be afraid of negative retaliatory feedback. Ockenfels has worked with eBay to introduce mechanisms that allow users to post honest, negative feedback with less fear of reprisal. See Christoph Uhlhaas, "Is Greed Good?" Scientific American Mind, Scientific American Mind, AugustSeptember 2007, p. 67. AugustSeptember 2007, p. 67.

"rising insurance premiums": Lior J. Strahilevitz, "How's My Driving? For Everyone (and Everything?)," Public Law and Legal Theory Working Paper No. 125, Law School, University of Chicago. Accessed from http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=899144.

have been tried: The Web site uncivilservants.org, for example, posts pictures of New York City cars with various official parking permits that are nonetheless parked illegally (many cars also have bootleg parking permits).

actual driving record: C. E. Preston and S. Harris, "Psychology of Drivers in Traffic Accidents," Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, vol. 49 (1965), pp. 28488. vol. 49 (1965), pp. 28488.

they were "better": For a good summary of these studies, see D. Walton and J. Bathurst, "An Exploration of the Perceptions of the Average Driver's Speed Compared with Perceived Driver Safety and Driving Skill," Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, vol. 30 (1998), 82130. vol. 30 (1998), 82130.

most dangerous thing: John Groeger, a psychologist at the University of Surrey in England, points out that this behavior may be a way to "protect ourselves from the anxieties involved in constantly placing ourselves at risk by developing confidence in our ability which we are rarely likely to be forced to realize is misplaced." See Groeger, Understanding Driving Understanding Driving (East Suss.e.x: Psychology Press, 2001), p. 163. (East Suss.e.x: Psychology Press, 2001), p. 163.

smallest returns: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," returns: Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, Journal of Finance, vol. 55, no. 2 (2000). vol. 55, no. 2 (2000).

car accident: Julie M. Kos and Valerie A. Clarke, "Is Optimistic Bias Influenced by Control or Delay?" Health Education Research: Theory and Practice, Health Education Research: Theory and Practice, vol. 16, no. 5 (2001), pp 53340. vol. 16, no. 5 (2001), pp 53340.

have done it: The texting while driving poll comes from Reuters, August 7, 2007. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0640649920070807.

underestimate our own risk: For an interesting discussion of this phenomenon in the context of seat-belt usage, see "Unconscious Motivators and Situational Safety Belt Use," Traffic Safety Facts: Traffic Tech, Traffic Safety Facts: Traffic Tech, No. 315 (Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2007). No. 315 (Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2007).

social mores and traffic laws: For a seminal discussion of these problems, see H. Laurence Ross, "Traffic Law Violation: A Folk Crime," Social Problems, Social Problems, vol. 8, no. 3 (196061) pp. 23141. vol. 8, no. 3 (196061) pp. 23141.

in question are ambiguous: See R. B. Felson, "Ambiguity and Bias in the Self-Concept," Social Psychology Quarterly, Social Psychology Quarterly, vol. 44 (March 1981), pp. 6469. vol. 44 (March 1981), pp. 6469.

"unskilled and unaware of it": Justin Kruger and David Dunning, "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-a.s.sessments," Journal of Personality and Social Pscyhology, Journal of Personality and Social Pscyhology, vol. 77, no. 6, (1999), pp. 112134. vol. 77, no. 6, (1999), pp. 112134.

"better" (i.e., safer) drivers: E. Kunkel, "On the Relations.h.i.+p Between Estimate of Ability and Driver Qualification," Psychologie und Praxis, Psychologie und Praxis, vol. 15 (1971), pp. 7380. vol. 15 (1971), pp. 7380.

(particularly men): See Frank P. McKenna, Robert A. Stanier, and Clive Lewis, "Factors Underlying Illusory Self-a.s.sessment of Driving Skill in Males and Females," Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, Accident a.n.a.lysis & Prevention, vol. 23, no. 1 (1991), pp. 4552. vol. 23, no. 1 (1991), pp. 4552.

outnumbered the courteous: New Jersey Star-Ledger, New Jersey Star-Ledger, September 28, 1998. September 28, 1998.

by low self-esteem: Mayer Perry writes, for example, that "if an individual lacks 'personal drive' or dominance, either is easily afforded in the driving situation, and in compensating for this lack, he frequently over-compensates." Perry, Aggression on the Road Aggression on the Road (London: Tavistock, 1968), p. 7. (London: Tavistock, 1968), p. 7.

promotes aggressive driving: George E. Schreer, "Narcissism and Aggression: Is Inflated Self-Esteem Related to Aggressive Driving?" North American Journal of Psychology, North American Journal of Psychology, vol. 4, no. 3 (2002), pp. 33342. vol. 4, no. 3 (2002), pp. 33342.

claim to have had: See Gina Kolata, "The Median, the Math, and the s.e.x," New York Times, New York Times, August 19, 2007. August 19, 2007.

than doing it: See "Aggravating Circ.u.mstances," a report produced by Public Agenda (available at http://www.publicagenda.com). It could be, of course, that the people in the sample (maybe the kind of people who answer surveys) just happened to be an extraordinarily well-behaved group of drivers who really were subject to an inordinate number of louts (the sort who do not answer surveys). There could also be recall bias at work; it is far easier to remember the isolated aggressive acts of others than the uneventful stream of well-behaved driving. This in itself, however, would not explain why people's perceptions would have changed over time.

"view of the self": J. M. Twenge, S. Konrath, J. D. Foster, W. K. Campbell, and B. J. Bushman, Egos Inflating over Time: A Test of Two Generational Theories of Narcissism, Egos Inflating over Time: A Test of Two Generational Theories of Narcissism, 2006. Cited in "Primary Sources," 2006. Cited in "Primary Sources," Atlantic, Atlantic, JulyAugust 2007. JulyAugust 2007.

attributes to police officers: Still, getting a ticket may be a form of at least temporarily effective feedback: One study, looking at ten million Ontario drivers for more than a decade, found that each conviction for a traffic offense led to a 35 percent decrease in relative risk of death over the next month for that driver and others. See Donald A. Redelmeier, Robert J. Tibsharani, and Leonard Evans, "Traffic-Law Enforcement and Risk of Death from Motor-Vehicle Crashes: Case-Crossover Study," Lancet, Lancet, vol. 361, no. 9376 (2003), pp. 217782. vol. 361, no. 9376 (2003), pp. 217782.

"experience is a mixed blessing": James Reason, Human Error Human Error (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. 86. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. 86.

environment for workers: Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2006). Available at (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2006). Available at http://www.bls.gov. See also P. Lynn and C. R. Lockwood, The Accident Liability of Company Car Drivers, The Accident Liability of Company Car Drivers, TRL Report 317 (Crowthorne: Transport Research Laboratory, 1998). This study found that company car drivers were 49 percent more likely to be involved in a crash, even after accounting for higher mileage and other factors. TRL Report 317 (Crowthorne: Transport Research Laboratory, 1998). This study found that company car drivers were 49 percent more likely to be involved in a crash, even after accounting for higher mileage and other factors.

at the bottom: Heinrich's safety philosophies have proved controversial over the years, but the idea that near misses are scaleable to more serious incidents remains powerful, particularly in traffic, where "human factors," it is commonly believed, are responsible for up to 90 percent of all crashes. Indeed, a large-scale study of "naturalistic driving behavior" in 2006, which for the first time was able to reliably estimate the near-miss incidents, reported the following distribution after a year's worth of study: 69 crashes, 761 near crashes, and 8,295 "incidents." This means, roughly, that for every 120 incidents, there were 11 minor-injury crashes and 1 serious crash-a more robust frequency than that proposed by Heinrich. See, for example, the work of Fred Manuele, such as On the Practice of Safety On the Practice of Safety (New York: Wiley Interscience, 2003). (New York: Wiley Interscience, 2003).

Investigators learned: a.s.sociated Press, May 5, 2007.

killed a motorcyclist: Information on the Janklow case comes from the Argus Leader, Argus Leader, August 31, 2003. August 31, 2003.

"more unintentional than others": See Teresa L. Kramer, Brenda M. Booth, Han Xiaotong, and Keith D. Williams, "Some Crashes Are More Unintentional Than Others: A Reply to Blanchard, Hicking, and Kuhn," Journal of Traumatic Stress, Journal of Traumatic Stress, vol. 16, no. 5 (October 2003), pp. 52930. vol. 16, no. 5 (October 2003), pp. 52930.

"hindsight bias": For a seminal account, see Baruch Fischoff, "Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty," Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, vol. 1, no. 2 (1975), pp. 28899. vol. 1, no. 2 (1975), pp. 28899.

intentional or not: In 1958, this number was said to be 88 out of 100. This figure, taken from a National Safety Council study, comes from H. Laurence Ross, "Traffic Law Violation: A Folk Crime," Social Problems, Social Problems, vol. 8, no. 3 (196061), pp. 23141. vol. 8, no. 3 (196061), pp. 23141.

"then it's an accident": Shamus Toumey, "Ryan Crash Kills Man Who Had Just Arrived from Mexico," Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Sun-Times, October 6, 2006. October 6, 2006.

over the limit and kills someone: In an excellent survey of the legal penalties for drivers who kill "vulnerable road users" (pedestrians and cyclists), Jake Voelcker notes that juries have long been unwilling to levy the most serious charges of manslaughter against even negligent drivers because, as drivers themselves, they expressed a feeling of "there, but for the grace of G.o.d, go I." He cites, as well, examples of subtle bias among judges who imply that accidents are themselves unavoidable-for example, the "accident happened because the appellant was driving rather too fast, as young men will." The "genuine accident" involving a sober driver, he notes, tends to be avoided by legislation. "Is this simply an unfortunate fact of modern life for which no one is to blame?" he asks. "Or is the driver responsible for the very presence of his car?" Voelcker points to a number of other unresolved legal issues. What should the appropriate penalty be for dangerous driving that narrowly misses killing someone? Why are convicted criminals given harsher sentences for driving-related offenses than others, even when the standard of driving involved in the offense is the same? Should drivers be held to a certain level of causality simply by choosing to operate a machine that is known to be dangerous, thus imposing potential risk on others? See Jake Voelcker, "A Critical Review of the Legal Penalties for Drivers Who Kill Cyclists or Pedestrians," April 2007. Retrieved from www.jake-v.co.uk/cycling.

majority were men: Phillip C. s.h.i.+n, David Hallett, Mary L. Chipman, Charles Tator, and John T. Granton, "Unsafe Driving in North American Automobile Commercials," Journal of Public Health, Journal of Public Health, vol. 27, no. 4 (December 2005), pp. 31825. vol. 27, no. 4 (December 2005), pp. 31825.

themselves as "unlucky"): See Richard Wiseman, The Luck Factor The Luck Factor (New York: Miramax Books, 2003). (New York: Miramax Books, 2003).

back in time they happened: See, for example, J. Mayc.o.c.k, C. Lockwood, and J. F. Lester, The Accident Liability of Car Drivers, The Accident Liability of Car Drivers, Research Report No. 315 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1991). Research Report No. 315 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1991).

end of their trip: G. Underwood, P. Chapman, Z. Berger and D. Crundall, "Driving Experience, Attentional Focusing, and the Recall of Recently Inspected Events," Transportation Research F: Psychology and Behaviour, Transportation Research F: Psychology and Behaviour, vol. 6 (2003), pp. 289304. vol. 6 (2003), pp. 289304.

more experienced drivers: P. Chapman, D. Crundall, N. Phelps, and G. Underwood, "The Effects of Driving Experience on Visual Search and Subsequent Memory for Hazardous Driving Situations," in Behavioural Research in Road Safety: Thirteenth Seminar Behavioural Research in Road Safety: Thirteenth Seminar (London: Department for Transport, 2003), pp. 25366. (London: Department for Transport, 2003), pp. 25366.

experience and expertise: When expert chess players are given a short glimpse of a chess board, for example, they can remember almost twice as much of the board's positions as novices can. For a discussion of this see Groeger, Understanding Driving, Understanding Driving, p. 101. p. 101.

scan the whole picture): See Stine Vogt and Svein Magnussen, "Expertise in Pictorial Perception: Eye-Movement Patterns and Visual Memory in Artists and Laymen," Perception, Perception, vol. 36, no. 1, 2007, pp. 91100. vol. 36, no. 1, 2007, pp. 91100.

"right above the threshold": For a more detailed account of McGehee's study, see Daniel V. McGehee, Mireille Raby, Cher Carney, John D. Lee, and Mich.e.l.le L. Reyes, "Extending Parental Mentoring Using an Event-Triggered Video Intervention in Rural Teen Drivers," Journal of Safety Research, Journal of Safety Research, vol. 38, no. 2 (2007), pp. 21527. vol. 38, no. 2 (2007), pp. 21527.

was not the case: "Vehicle Monitoring Systems Please Providers and Patients," EMS Insider, EMS Insider, August 2004, p. 7. August 2004, p. 7.

in the "wrong" lanes: Mohamed Abdel-Aty and J. G. Klodzinski, "Safety Considerations in Designing Electronic Toll Plazas: Case Study," ITE Journal, ITE Journal, March 2001. March 2001.

when it is minor: E. Walster, "a.s.signment of Responsibility for an Accident," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol. 3 (1966), pp. 7379. vol. 3 (1966), pp. 7379.

no gla.s.s was broken: Elizabeth F. Loftus and John C. Palmer, "Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction: An Example of the Interaction Between Language and Memory," Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 1974. This study has been questioned for its "ecological validity" because it took place in a laboratory setting and not in the traumatic, unexpected real-life environment of actually witnessing a car crash and then testifying in court. In those situations, even more distortion could be expected. 1974. This study has been questioned for its "ecological validity" because it took place in a laboratory setting and not in the traumatic, unexpected real-life environment of actually witnessing a car crash and then testifying in court. In those situations, even more distortion could be expected.

"tend to explain": J. Stannand Baker, "Single Vehicle Accidents on Route 66," The Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology, and Police Science, vol. 58, no. 4 (December 1967), pp. 5895.

Chapter Three: How Our Eyes and Minds Betray Us on the Road.

"the attention it deserves": Thanks to Leonard Evans for this quote.

people who study driving: See, for example, Walter Miles, "Sleeping with the Eyes Open," Scientific American, Scientific American, June 1929, pp. 489-92. June 1929, pp. 489-92.

one-third of the time: K. Karrer, S. Briest, T. Vohringer-Kuhnt, T. Baumgarten, and R. Schleicher, "Driving Without Awareness," Unpublished paper, Center of Human-Machine-Systems, Berlin University of Technology, Germany.

become fully automatic: See John Groeger, Understanding Driving Understanding Driving (East Suss.e.x: Psychology Press, 2001), p. 69. (East Suss.e.x: Psychology Press, 2001), p. 69.

does not seem overly taxing: Studies have suggested that merely changing changing one's speed occasionally can help keep a driver more alert. See Pilar Tejero and Mariano Choliz, "Driving on the Motorway: the Effect of Alternating Speed on Drivers' Activation Level and Mental Effort," one's speed occasionally can help keep a driver more alert. See Pilar Tejero and Mariano Choliz, "Driving on the Motorway: the Effect of Alternating Speed on Drivers' Activation Level and Mental Effort," Ergonomics, Ergonomics, vol. 45, no. 9 (2002), pp. 60518. vol. 45, no. 9 (2002), pp. 60518.

than on a highway: L. Harms, "Drivers' Attention Responses to Environmental Variation: A Dual-Task Real Traffic Study," in Vision in Vehicles, Vision in Vehicles, ed. A. G. Gale et al. (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers, 1986), pp. 13138. ed. A. G. Gale et al. (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers, 1986), pp. 13138.

the less we actually remember: These findings were reported in L. Bergen, T. Grimes, and D. Potter, "How Attention Part.i.tions Itself During Simultaneous Message Presentations," Human Communication Research, Human Communication Research, vol. 31, no. 3 (2005), pp. 31136. See also C. Blain and R. Meeds, "Effects of Television News Crawls on Viewers' Memory for Audio Information in Newscasts" (unpublished ma.n.u.script, Kansas State University, Manhattan, 2004). vol. 31, no. 3 (2005), pp. 31136. See also C. Blain and R. Meeds, "Effects of Television News Crawls on Viewers' Memory for Audio Information in Newscasts" (unpublished ma.n.u.script, Kansas State University, Manhattan, 2004).

10.8 times per hour: See J. C. Stutts, J. R. Feaganes, E. A. Rodgman, C. Hamlett, T. Meadows, D. W. Reinfurt, K. Gish, M. Mercadante, and L. Staplin, Distractions in Everyday Driving Distractions in Everyday Driving (Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.: AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, 2003). Available at: (Was.h.i.+ngton, D.C.: AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, 2003). Available at: http://www.aaafoundation.org/pdf/DistractionsInEverydayDriving.pdf.

for 0.6 seconds: L. Tijerina, "Driver Eye Glance Behavior During Car Following on the Road," Society of Automotive Engineers Paper 1999-01-1300, 1999.

skipping a song: Susan L. Chisholm, Jeff K. Caird, Julie Lockhart, Lisa Fern, and Elise Teteris, "Driving Performance While Engaged in MP-3 Player Interaction: Effects of Practice and Task Difficulty on PRT and Eye Movements," Proceedings of the Fourth International Driving Symposium on Human Factors in Driver a.s.sessment, Training and Vehicle Design Proceedings of the Fourth International Driving Symposium on Human Factors in Driver a.s.sessment, Training and Vehicle Design (Iowa City, 2007). (Iowa City, 2007).