India 2020 Part 12

marketed worldwide by a US company. There are a number of instances where Indian software has found applications in Europe and the USA, in tasks ranging from airport applications to manufacturing . Also,certain types of software from the academic sector are being tapped by a few global giants, eventually to be integrated by them in value added packages. The targets for India's software export are projected as:$10 billon by 2002 and approximently $38 billon by 2008 .Even these projected levels of acheivements can be greatly surpa.s.sed by encouraging entrepreneurs.h.i.+p. Experts also believe that by 2020 india could capture about 10 to 15 per cent of the total world market for upper end manufacturing software,emerging as an important supplier of software to companies of the developed world .This will be addition to a large business in lower end software. Since by 2020 the language barriers for software would have been reduced considerable,most Indians would be using Indian languages for domestic and local applications. It is likely that 30 per cent of those in employment would be using various kinds of software .

The nature of business in the manufacturing sector is such that a few companies dominate the world scene due to the superiority of their technological base and organizational strengths.How ever,the demands of modern technologies and customer preferences are such that even these global giants cannot do everything on their own.They need several sources software,design practices,applications development and so on .India's manufacturing sector align with some of these giants to provide at least part of their value added software and designs. These efforts will bring in considerable earnings and also place India in a position of strength as the software industry becomes more sophisticated in the coming years.In return, Indian industry can also benefit by acquiring the Most modern manufacturing equipment and practices required To meet rigorous quality and time schedule standards in modern business. These new manufacturing practices will also give a fillip to overall economic growth because each sector, be it agrofood or chemicals or biotechnology or electronics or packaging,will benefit from these new capabilities. Even though technologies and know how may be imported, the Indian machine tool and engineering sectors could well aim to manufacture the most sophisticated and automated systems the world. Eventually, India can acquire a leaders.h.i.+p positionin a few areas of 134.

advanced machine systems. It will require a concerted effots involving people from industry, research laboratories, designers, consultants, exports and marketingpersons. The management of several such teams in a highlycompet.i.tive and businesslike environment requires new skills,capabilities and commitment. It cannot be achieved in the older style of central coordination and delayp.r.o.ne hierarchicaisystems. In fact, the managerial tasks involved are going to bemanufacturing systems design.

Other manufacturing sectors We have discussed the upper end of the manufacturing sectorwhich is emerging in a major way in the developed countries because it is most likely to be the model for the future globally.We believe that Indian indudtry cannot escape this route and In fact, if we are alert enough and 'get our act together', we cantake major advantage of the newly emerging opportunities and been make up for the ones missed earlier.Therefore, we needto act on this front speedily. Yet we cannot afford to forget a large number of small andtiny manufacturing units which are in the organized and the socalled informal sector. They range from the level of artisancraft to those with obsolete machinery and equipment, survivingostly because of their low wagecosts.Of course a number ofthem have people with great innovative capabilities and basic skills. Some of the smaller units have come up to meet the demands for equipment arising out subst.i.tution ,orbecause of the local sourcing requirements of industries using imported equipment and know how.

The automotive sector isa good example of this. Many plastic products, textiles, leatherand electrical goods are also manufactured by small andmediumsized industries.

The problems facing them are not merely automated manufacturing or availability of software.Eventually, say in a decade or even earlier, this sector will also face compet.i.tion from more efficient units using advanced technology. It is imperative that we prepare the tiny, small,medium and even bigger(not so advanced)Indian industriesto face a more compet.i.tive future. That would mean a systematicupgradation of human skills in most of these industries and also largescale modernization of many of them by continuousinjection of newer (albeit incremental) technologies.Many ofthese industries have to be helped to reorient themselvesspeedily for different product ranges and production processes,keeping in mind future demands in the domestic and export sectors.

A redeeming feature of the domestic and export manufacturing methods is that there is 135.

no longer going to be a centralized and monolithic ma.s.s manufacturing base.

Thefactories of the future will be a network of highly specialized design,development and production bases, spread over the globe. If we have a collective will we can transform most of ourexisting industries along these lines and thereby also createenough s.p.a.ce for totally new technoentrepreneurbased unitsto come up.

We do not envision an India which gives up manufacturing In favour of agriculture and services. A country of a billionplus People has to excel in many crucial sectors manufacturing is one of them.

Engineering industries Some of the elements envisaged in the TIFAC technology Vision report for engineering industries are: .

By 2010 , 60 per cent of the machine tools producedwill be computer and numerically controlled (CNC).

By 2020, 80 per cent of the machine tools produced Will be CNC.

By 200005, Indian industries will go in for flexiblemanufacturing systems (FMS), artificial intelligence (AI) applications, processing using laser, water jet, etc., coldforming / extrusion,near net shape manufacturing, highspeed machining , intellilgent manufacturing using sensors, continuous forming, reduced setup times virtual reality applications and hard machining.

Boiler designs for many alternate fuels will be available by 2005.

Fluidized bed combustion technology will be in wide use by 200005.

By 200005, technological upgradation covering matertials design, manufacturing, quality, reliability, packaging, marketing and servicing will take place. These will include computer Aided Design (CAD), computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM), FMS, ISO9000, ISO 14000, R&D in new materials, modular design, casting, and forging, mechatronics, precision manufacturing and automation.

Design and development of high precision machine tools, highspeed spindles, linear motor slides, diamond truing machines, etc. will also come up.

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India will become a net exporter of technologies by 2010.

Software development for processes and systems will take place.

By 2020 India will be a leading producer of quality castings and forgings and will be a large exporter of these items. India will be selfsufficient in advanced machine tools and boilers using stateoftheart technologies.

Exports of these items will progressively increase.

Employment generation will be on the rise.

The select areas of strength are automobile parts, casting, forging and CNC machine tools. A few more could be added after close evaluation. Urgent action is needed to realize this vision. Among these manifold tasks are: gradation of processes CAM, robotics, welding, near net shape manufacturing, quality, delivery and cost, and state of the art technology adoption.

Improving the supplier base for components and suba.s.semblies as well as evolving modular designs flexible manufacturing and agile systems are crucial.

In the foundry sector, the increased accent has to be on control of dimension / surface finish, value addition through machined casting, forging and machined and automation with increased scale of production.

In the forging sector we need to develop better tooling capabilitiesCAD, adopt cold forging and near net shape technologies and resort to mechanization and automation with largevolume production.

In boiler and pressure vessels manufacture, urgent action is required for the upgradation of welding systems, automation in welding, use of robotics for improvement in radiography, controls, reliability and safety.

Further advanced boiler technologies that are required to be mastered are development of fluidized bed technologies, once through boiler designs, improvement of boiler tubes, thermal efficiencies and design for alternate fuels.

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In addition to the above, advanced manufacturing technologies would crucially depend upon improved manufacturing capabilities. This demands considerable investment in research and development in areas such as: .

Fundamental research in machining including micromachining .

Development of advanced automation systems including software .

Development of robotics .

Mechatronic development .

Development of measuring and testing equipment for quality and reliability as well as .

Development of proper standards The above will require allround upgradation of skills and their continuous enhancement.

The workforce at all levels has to be readied for mechatronics through multiskill training. Most of the updated curricula in it is, polytechnics and engineering collages will require drastic revision. Their facilities will need to be modernized. In the transitional period, innovative teaching methods for the advanced facilities existing in industries and national laboratories have to be adopted. As depicted briefly in the earlier chapters, we have attempted to present the transformation of the present status to the vision for 2020 for engineering industries through figure 7.1. In the centre core technologies to be mastered are highlighted.

Vision for textile machinery The textiles sector is crucial for India to meet its domestic needs and more important to provide the major share of its export earnings. While there are a number of strengths in this area, there are also several technologies weaknesses. For example, we depend upon imported machinery for quality production. The TIFAC Task Force teams which have looked at these aspects in totality are confident that India can be a leading textile producing country and become a top player in the global market.

This is hoe they envision the steps (a.s.suming that corresponding action is taken well in advance): .

By 2000, technology upgradation, productivity improvement, energy conservation and environmental protection aspects and quality improvement will take place. This will include use of CAD/CAM, robotics, doffing and highspeed 138.

ring frames, electronic instrumentation and computerized automation, airjet looms, spinning and preparatoryautoleveller cards and draw frames.

Agricultural research will result in better cotton yield. Organic cotton and coloured cotton will be available.

There will be a reduction in the cost of hank yarn, use of cone yarn, production of industrial filter fabrics. Medical textiles and use of micro fibres.

By 2010 ecofriendly textile exports and domestic use will start.

Production of geo and technical textiles will begin in a major way.

Machinery modernization will be achieved and there will be development of advanced machines with electronic controls. New weft insertion techniques and a continuous rotating system for weaving will be developed.

Hightech knitting technologies, multiface weaving, meltspinning of microfilament yarn, ecofriendly processing, improvement in indoor air quality and recycling of waste will all be done.

Fibre inputs like jute, linen, polyester, acrylics and polypropylene will find a place in yarn manufacture.

Largescale units with a.s.sembly line plants will diversify into highvalue garments, jackets, industrial wear and sports wear integrated textile mills will enter garment manufacture by 201020.

Fas.h.i.+on changes will be faster by 2000 than at present.

Employment of women will be on the increase, especially in garment making.

Figure 7.2 attempts to capture these details in a simple form with the lefthand side presenting highlights of the current status, the right side being the vision for 2020, and the centre portion highlighting core technologies to be mastered.

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Vision for the electrical machines industry This industry is poised for a quantum jump with excellent growth opportunities.

Multinational corporations are likely to base their manufacturing units in India. R&D focus will be on materials, electromagnetics, mechanical engineering, manufacture, thermal engineering and power eletronics. By 2000 CAD/CAM and automated production lines will be by Indian companies. Maintenancefree machines will be produced in India. Direct torque control technology, automatic winding, use of CRGO / CRNGO sheet steels will all be available. Inputs for production will undergo a change.

Aluminium foil will replace wires. Use of new materials like samarium, ferrite and laser etched magnetic material sheets and use of polyestermide and polyamide as alternative enamel will be on the increase.

By 200010 designs for better heat dissipation,better bearing design and development of 11 kvht motors will be prevalent. Largescale flexible manufacturing facilities will come up Better magnetic materials,insulation and highcurrent density Conductors will be used. By 201520 development of powerconditioned motors will be taken up and organic conductors will replace metallic Conductoes. Applications of superconductivity,linear motors and singlechip controller will be widely available.

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Vision for the manufacture of transport equipment India will follow the world trend in transport equipment with a reduced time lag.

Commercial vehicles will have a higher power to weight ratio and twowheelers will use four stroke engines with electronic controls.More diesel engines with direct injection and electronic control will come up.Indian industry will become one of the preferred suppliers to world markets.It is essential that the new vehicles are ecofriendly.

Anything uniquely Indian?

As we look at the developments in the various sectors,wer may ask whether they are uniquely Indian or are we merely following the trends of the developed world,and whether India is merely adapting itself faster than in the past.These are not easy questions though possing them is easy! What if the country develops very well,the well being of all Indians is taken care of,and the country's security needs are fully met,and yet we have not done something 'uniquely' Indian?we don't think the great majority of Indians will be particularly worried about this.The most important tasks confronting us are to remove poverty altogether from our midst,to provide considerable social and 141.

economic opportunities to all Indians and also to provide for the security of their quality of life.in real terms,aspects other than these are of secondary importance.Of course,geopolitics and other geocommercial realities dictate that we achieve these with a basic core strength of our own,even while we strike many strategic parteners.h.i.+ps with others in the world,in terms of technology,trade or business development.

However,the aspiration to find something unique still remains alive in a number of Indians,specially those,perhaps, with an intellectual bent of mind.they often look at their own capabilities and wonder why Indian has not done something exceptional.There is some legitimacy to such aspirations as well.in fact,it is only such aspirations or such dreams that can propel a nation in the long run.the Indian of the past has had many unique inventions and discoveries which have had a great impact on human thought and civilization.These have not merely been in the fields of philosophy,art,trade or statecraft but in terms of technological artifacts as well.However,in the recent past,there are not many obvious examples that one can be proud of except in missiles,s.p.a.ce or in atomic energy.The name of Bose has become synonymous with the most modern sound systems.But Bose did not achieve this when he was in India.During the five decades after independence we had so many major problems to solve.Looking back we aloe not had the type of resolve that is required to wipe out the Centuries to stagnation and emerge as a vibrant society.We have let go many opportunities presented by techonologies,as well as by trade and business. Missed opportunities do not usually recur in the same form.In a compet.i.tive world, there are others waiting to seize these opportunities. Much more than the blows to national pride or that of the intellectuals, the worst outcome of such missed opportunities is the loss to the nation. slow economic growth hits the poor the most. Our utmost attention during the next quarter century should be to attend to these problems of growth and removal of poverty. In order to do so,we may have to adapt many things from the world, as also prepare ourselves for future creative adventures.Having looked at some of these macro issues relating to our being unique, let us address each of the earlier sectors to see what the possibilities are of such accomplishment. In the agriculture sector,let us not forget that our green Revolution was based on research done elsewhere in the world.It was latter adapted to Indian conditions.The way the farmers adapted these techniques is remarkable. In the coming years,India faces the challenge of having to find 142.

her own solution for higher yields.Indian agricultural has its own specific features relating to land holdings,terrains and agroclimatic conditions.Many techniques and practices will call for newer and novel solutions ,though they may not all be flashy.There are possibilities of unique applications of biotechnology or newer forms of agricultural management providing examples of ecologically sustainable practices. There are good possibilities that India,With a broad genetic base.In the chemical sector by and large,it would be a question of catching up, adapting newer inventions made elsewhere speedily and also producing our own innovations.There are immense possibilities for Indian contributions in specific areas of the chemicals sector: catalytic sciences and their applications, new clean chemical processes, and new inventions for medicinal applications. In the field of natural products, given India's rich biodiversity and immense base of ancient knowledge still extant, we may be able to make several contributions.further,as this is a virgin area worldwide, the success rate for India's efforts is likely to be very high. In the manufacturing sector our uniqueness can manifest itself in terms of applications. If we take up applications of advanced software for manufacturing, as described earlier seriously, there are possibilities that some modules or approaches may emerge with a novel thrust for which India will be known on the world scene.while this itself cannot be the end goal for society as a whole in the coming years, a determined group of Indians could steadyfastly work towards such possibilities and make a mark in the world.In the pursit of allround economic growth, the physical and social wellbeing of all our people and national security, we may have to ensure the creation of an enabling environment to try something uniquely Indian.such an inventive spirit will be useful for the longterm sustainability of our grains.

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Chapter 8.

Services As People's Wealth We are what we think All that we are arises With our thoughts With our thoughts We make our world.

The Buddha The services sectors have come to be considered a major part of the economy only in recent times. It generally subsumes all economic activities other than those related to agriculture or manufacturing (including mining). Trading, marketing, repairing and, of course, service in public organizations including various forms of government service, the postal service, teaching and so on come under this sector. Changes in agriculture and manufacturing have propelled the growth of the services sector.

Modern agriculture with its improved inputs and greater mechanization has led to decreased agricultural employment and migration of farm workers to urban areas in search of better living standards which the manufacturing sector is expected to offer. In India 6070 percent of the workforce is in agriculture. But slow economic growth does not allow a greater absorption of the rural poor in other activities and many Indians still survive as marginal farmers or marginal landless labourers. This problem requires special attention,Partly by helping some with better inputs in agriculture and also by finding avenues for many of them in related or other professions so that they do not depend alone. There have been attempts to build rural roads or other employment generation schemes. But more creative and economically sustainable options are available in the agrofood sectors, in exploitation of biodiversity, water conversation programmes, and tourism, value added crafts and other activities.

In the manufacturing sector, as seen in the previous chapter, there are higher demands of skills and knowledge. Increased economic activity is definitely going to increase employment in manufacturing but the rate may not be as much as it was, say, two or three decades ago.

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There is, as elsewhere in the developed world, a search for new employment, namely, for a s.h.i.+ft to a sector loosely defined as the services sector. One way to define this sector is to include anything other than direct agriculture or manufacturing. The emergence of modern information technologies has made the demarcations even more fuzzy. How do you treat the activity of generation of computers simulations of several potential products? Or regular monitoring of soil conditions and weather forecasts with the help of satellites and other data, in order to provide advisories to the farmers? Or monitoring of global markets of agricultural products and the possible global yields to a.n.a.lyse and advice farmers on possible sales strategies? Or monitoring of the coasts through satellite sensors to advice fishermen about potential areas of high yield of fish?

The examples we quote are in regular commercial operation in advanced countries and successful experiments have taken place in India as well.tourism, testing and calibration, technical and management consultancy, training, security, real estate, marketing, media and advertising, to name a few, are a part of the services sector.

Can a country survive on services?

There are some who would like to believe in simplistic statements about post industrial society and the revolution of information techonology whereby socities can be sustained through the services sector alone. This may be true for smaller countries. A country like India cannot hope to build its future on the services sector alone though it can be and will be a major coponenet of the economy. India cannot afford not to build its strengths in agriculture for reasons of foood and nutritional security. Nor can it afford to ignores manufacturing strengths for reasons of economic and national security. Based on the strengths of these two sectors, it can build a major economic infrastructure for the services sector and use it to generate great wealth and employement for her people.

Thus, the services sector, if properly developed along with the other two important and basic sectors, can really be considered a sector in the service of the people, to find new jobs and individual properity. In our technology vision 2020 doc.u.ments we have given great importance to the sevices sector as it covers multiple sectors of technology and manufacture .