The Singularity Is Near_ When Humans Transcend Biology Part 36

59. 59. As quoted by Natasha Vita-More, "Arterati on Ideas," http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:QAnJsLcXHXUJ:www.extropy.com/ideas/journal/previous/1998/02-01.html+Arterati+on+ideas&hl=en and http://www.extropy.com/ideas/journal/previous/1998/02-01.html. As quoted by Natasha Vita-More, "Arterati on Ideas," http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:QAnJsLcXHXUJ:www.extropy.com/ideas/journal/previous/1998/02-01.html+Arterati+on+ideas&hl=en and http://www.extropy.com/ideas/journal/previous/1998/02-01.html.

60. 60. Christine Boese, "The Screen-Age: Our Brains in our Laptops," CNN.com, August 2, 2004. Christine Boese, "The Screen-Age: Our Brains in our Laptops," CNN.com, August 2, 2004.

61. 61. Thomas Hobbes, Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan Leviathan (1651). (1651).

62. 62. Seth Lloyd and Y.Jack Ng, "Black Hole Computers," Seth Lloyd and Y.Jack Ng, "Black Hole Computers," Scientific American Scientific American, November 2004.

63. 63. Alan M. MacRobert, "The Allen Telescope Array: SETI's Next Big Step," Alan M. MacRobert, "The Allen Telescope Array: SETI's Next Big Step," Sky & Telescope Sky & Telescope, April 2004, http://skyandtelescope.com/printable/resources/seti/article_256.asp.

64. 64. Ibid. Ibid.

65. 65. Ibid. Ibid.

66. 66. C. H. Townes, "At What Wavelength Should We Search for Signals from Extraterrestrial Intelligence?" C. H. Townes, "At What Wavelength Should We Search for Signals from Extraterrestrial Intelligence?" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 80 (1983): 114751. S. A. Kingsley in 80 (1983): 114751. S. A. Kingsley in The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Optical Spectrum The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Optical Spectrum, vol. 2, S. A. Kingsley and G. A. Lemarchand, eds. (1996) Proc. WPIE 2704: 10216.

67. 67. N. S. Kardashev, "Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations," N. S. Kardashev, "Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations," Soviet Astronomy Soviet Astronomy 8.2 (1964): 21720. Summarized in Guillermo A. Lemarchand, "Detectability of Extraterrestrial Technological Activities," 8.2 (1964): 21720. Summarized in Guillermo A. Lemarchand, "Detectability of Extraterrestrial Technological Activities," SETIQuest SETIQuest 1:1, pp. 313, http://www.coseti.org/lemarch1.htm. 1:1, pp. 313, http://www.coseti.org/lemarch1.htm.

68. 68. Frank Drake and Dava Sobel, Frank Drake and Dava Sobel, Is Anyone Out There? Is Anyone Out There? (New York: Dell, 1994); Carl Sagan and Frank Drake, "The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence," (New York: Dell, 1994); Carl Sagan and Frank Drake, "The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence," Scientific American Scientific American (May 1975): 8089. A Drake-equation calculator can be found at http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html. (May 1975): 8089. A Drake-equation calculator can be found at http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html.

69. 69. Many of the descriptions of the Drake equation express Many of the descriptions of the Drake equation express f fL as the fraction of the planet's life during which radio transmission takes place, but this should properly be expressed as a fraction of the life of the universe, as we don't really care how long that planet has been around; rather, we care about the duration of the radio transmissions. as the fraction of the planet's life during which radio transmission takes place, but this should properly be expressed as a fraction of the life of the universe, as we don't really care how long that planet has been around; rather, we care about the duration of the radio transmissions.

70. 70. Seth Shostak provided "an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy." Marcus Chown, "ET First Contact 'Within 20 Years,' " Seth Shostak provided "an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy." Marcus Chown, "ET First Contact 'Within 20 Years,' " New Scientist New Scientist 183.2457 (July 24, 2004). Available online at http://www.new scientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6189. 183.2457 (July 24, 2004). Available online at http://www.new scientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6189.

71. 71. T. L. Wilson, "The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence," T. L. Wilson, "The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence," Nature Nature, February 22, 2001.

72. 72. Most recent estimates have been between ten and fifteen billion years. In 2002 estimates based on data from the Hubble s.p.a.ce Telescope were between thirteen and fourteen billion years. A study published by Case Western Reserve University scientist Lawrence Krauss and Dartmouth University's Brian Chaboyer applied recent findings on the evolution of stars and concluded that there was a 95 percent level of confidence that the age of the universe is between 11.2 and 20 billion years. Lawrence Krauss and Brian Chaboyer, "Irion, the Milky Way's Restless Swarms of Stars," Most recent estimates have been between ten and fifteen billion years. In 2002 estimates based on data from the Hubble s.p.a.ce Telescope were between thirteen and fourteen billion years. A study published by Case Western Reserve University scientist Lawrence Krauss and Dartmouth University's Brian Chaboyer applied recent findings on the evolution of stars and concluded that there was a 95 percent level of confidence that the age of the universe is between 11.2 and 20 billion years. Lawrence Krauss and Brian Chaboyer, "Irion, the Milky Way's Restless Swarms of Stars," Science Science 299 (January 3, 2003): 6062. Recent research from NASA has narrowed down the age of the universe to 13.7 billion years plus or minus 200 million, http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/m_mm/mr_age.html. 299 (January 3, 2003): 6062. Recent research from NASA has narrowed down the age of the universe to 13.7 billion years plus or minus 200 million, http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/m_mm/mr_age.html.

73. 73. Quoted in Eric M. Jones, " 'Where Is Everybody?': An Account of Fermi's Question," Los Alamos National Laboratories, March 1985, http://www.bayarea.net/~kins/AboutMe/Fermi_and_Teller/fermi_ question.html. Quoted in Eric M. Jones, " 'Where Is Everybody?': An Account of Fermi's Question," Los Alamos National Laboratories, March 1985, http://www.bayarea.net/~kins/AboutMe/Fermi_and_Teller/fermi_ question.html.

74. 74. First, consider the estimate of 10 First, consider the estimate of 1042 cps for the ultimate cold laptop (as in chapter 3). We can estimate the ma.s.s of the solar system as being approximately equal to the ma.s.s of the sun, which is 2 x 10 cps for the ultimate cold laptop (as in chapter 3). We can estimate the ma.s.s of the solar system as being approximately equal to the ma.s.s of the sun, which is 2 x 1030 kilograms. One twentieth of 1 percent of this ma.s.s is 10 kilograms. One twentieth of 1 percent of this ma.s.s is 1027 kilograms. At 10 kilograms. At 1042 cps per kilogram, 10 cps per kilogram, 1027 kilograms would provide 10 kilograms would provide 1069 cps. If we use the estimate of 10 cps. If we use the estimate of 1050 cps for the ultimate hot laptop, we get 10 cps for the ultimate hot laptop, we get 1077 cps. cps.

75. 75. Anders Sandberg, "The Physics of Information Processing Superobjects: Daily Life Among the Jupiter Brains," Anders Sandberg, "The Physics of Information Processing Superobjects: Daily Life Among the Jupiter Brains," Journal of Evolution and Technology Journal of Evolution and Technology 5 (December 22, 1999), http://www.jetpress.org/volume5/Brains2.pdf. 5 (December 22, 1999), http://www.jetpress.org/volume5/Brains2.pdf.

76. 76. Freeman John Dyson, "Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation," Freeman John Dyson, "Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation," Science Science 131 (June 3,1960): 166768. 131 (June 3,1960): 166768.

77. 77. Cited in Sandberg, "Physics of Information Processing Superobjects." Cited in Sandberg, "Physics of Information Processing Superobjects."

78. 78. There were 195.5 billion units of semiconductor chips s.h.i.+pped in 1994, 433.5 billion in 2004. Jim Feldhan, president, Semico Research Corporation, http://www.semico.com. There were 195.5 billion units of semiconductor chips s.h.i.+pped in 1994, 433.5 billion in 2004. Jim Feldhan, president, Semico Research Corporation, http://www.semico.com.

79. 79. Robert Freitas has been a leading advocate of using robotic probes, especially self-replicating ones. See Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Interstellar Probes: A New Approach to SETI," Robert Freitas has been a leading advocate of using robotic probes, especially self-replicating ones. See Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Interstellar Probes: A New Approach to SETI," J. British Interplanet. Soc. J. British Interplanet. Soc. 33 (March 1980): 95100, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/lnterstellarProbesJBIS1980.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "A Self-Reproducing Interstellar Probe," 33 (March 1980): 95100, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/lnterstellarProbesJBIS1980.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "A Self-Reproducing Interstellar Probe," J. British Interplanet. Soc. J. British Interplanet. Soc. 33 (July 1980): 25164, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ReproJBISJuly1980.htm; Francisco Valdes and Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Comparison of Reproducing and Nonreproducing Starprobe Strategies for Galactic Exploration," 33 (July 1980): 25164, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ReproJBISJuly1980.htm; Francisco Valdes and Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Comparison of Reproducing and Nonreproducing Starprobe Strategies for Galactic Exploration," J. British Interplanet. Soc. J. British Interplanet. Soc. 33 (November 1980): 4028, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonRep.r.o.nov1980.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Debunking the Myths of Interstellar Probes," 33 (November 1980): 4028, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonRep.r.o.nov1980.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Debunking the Myths of Interstellar Probes," AstroSearch AstroSearch 1 (JulyAugust 1983): 89, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ProbeMyths1983.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "The Case for Interstellar Probes," 1 (JulyAugust 1983): 89, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ProbeMyths1983.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "The Case for Interstellar Probes," J. British Interplanet. Soc. J. British Interplanet. Soc. 36 (November 1983): 49095, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/TheCaseForInterstellarProbes1983.htm. 36 (November 1983): 49095, http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/TheCaseForInterstellarProbes1983.htm.

80. 80. M. Stenner et al., "The Speed of Information in a 'Fast-Light' Optical Medium," M. Stenner et al., "The Speed of Information in a 'Fast-Light' Optical Medium," Nature Nature 425 (October 16, 2003): 69598. See also Raymond Y. Chiao et al., "Superluminal and Parelectric Effects in Rubidium Vapor and Ammonia Gas," 425 (October 16, 2003): 69598. See also Raymond Y. Chiao et al., "Superluminal and Parelectric Effects in Rubidium Vapor and Ammonia Gas," Quantum and Semicla.s.sical Optics Quantum and Semicla.s.sical Optics 7 (1995): 279. 7 (1995): 279.

81. 81. I. Marcikic et al., "Long-Distance Teleportation of Qubits at Telecommunication Wavelengths," I. Marcikic et al., "Long-Distance Teleportation of Qubits at Telecommunication Wavelengths," Nature Nature 421 (January 2003): 50913; John Roach, "Physicists Teleport Quantum Bits over Long Distance," 421 (January 2003): 50913; John Roach, "Physicists Teleport Quantum Bits over Long Distance," National Geographic News National Geographic News, January 29, 2003; Herb Brody, "Quantum Cryptography; in "10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change the World," MIT Technology Review MIT Technology Review, February 2003; N. Gisin et al., "Quantum Correlations with Moving Observers," Quantum Optics Quantum Optics (December 2003): 51; Quantum Cryptography exhibit, ITU Telecom World 2003, Geneva, Switzerland, October 1, 2003; Sora Song, "The Quantum Leaper," (December 2003): 51; Quantum Cryptography exhibit, ITU Telecom World 2003, Geneva, Switzerland, October 1, 2003; Sora Song, "The Quantum Leaper," Time Time, March 15, 2004; Mark Buchanan, "Light's Spooky Connections SetNew Distance Record," New Scientist New Scientist, June 28, 1997.

82. 82. Charles H. Lineweaver and Tamara M. Davis, "Misconceptions About the Big Bang," Charles H. Lineweaver and Tamara M. Davis, "Misconceptions About the Big Bang," Scientific American Scientific American, March 2005.

83. 83. A. Einstein and N. Rosen, "The Particle Problem in the General Theory of Relativity," A. Einstein and N. Rosen, "The Particle Problem in the General Theory of Relativity," Physical Review Physical Review 48 (1935): 73. 48 (1935): 73.

84. 84. J. A. Wheeler, "Geons," J. A. Wheeler, "Geons," Physical Review Physical Review 97 (1955): 51136. 97 (1955): 51136.

85. 85. M. S. Morris, K. S. Thorne, and U. Yurtsever, "Wormholes, Time Machines, and the Weak Energy Condition," M. S. Morris, K. S. Thorne, and U. Yurtsever, "Wormholes, Time Machines, and the Weak Energy Condition," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 61.13 (September 26, 1988): 144649; M. S. Morris and K. S. Thorne, "Wormholes in s.p.a.cetime and Their Use for Interstellar Travel: A Tool for Teaching General Relativity," 61.13 (September 26, 1988): 144649; M. S. Morris and K. S. Thorne, "Wormholes in s.p.a.cetime and Their Use for Interstellar Travel: A Tool for Teaching General Relativity," American Journal of Physics American Journal of Physics 56.5 (1988): 395412. 56.5 (1988): 395412.

86. 86. M. Visser, "Wormholes, Baby Universes, and Causality," M. Visser, "Wormholes, Baby Universes, and Causality," Physical Review D Physical Review D 41.4 (February 15, 1990): 111624. 41.4 (February 15, 1990): 111624.

87. 87. Sandberg, "Physics of Information Processing Superobjects." Sandberg, "Physics of Information Processing Superobjects."

88. 88. David Hochberg and Thomas W. Kephart, "Wormhole Cosmology and the Horizon Problem," David Hochberg and Thomas W. Kephart, "Wormhole Cosmology and the Horizon Problem," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 70 (1993): 266568, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v70/i18/p2665_1; D. Hochberg and M. Visser, "Geometric Structure of the Generic Static Transversable Wormhole Throat," 70 (1993): 266568, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v70/i18/p2665_1; D. Hochberg and M. Visser, "Geometric Structure of the Generic Static Transversable Wormhole Throat," Physical Review D Physical Review D 56 (1997): 4745. 56 (1997): 4745.

89. 89. J. K. Webb et al., "Further Evidence for Cosmological Evolution of the Fine Structure Constant," J. K. Webb et al., "Further Evidence for Cosmological Evolution of the Fine Structure Constant," Physical Review Letters Physical Review Letters 87.9 (August 27, 2001): 091301; "When Constants Are Not Constant," 87.9 (August 27, 2001): 091301; "When Constants Are Not Constant," Physics in Action Physics in Action (October 2001), http://physicsweb.org/articles/world/14/10/4. (October 2001), http://physicsweb.org/articles/world/14/10/4.

90. 90. Joao Magueijo, John D. Barrow, and Haavard Bunes Sandvik, "Is It e or Is It c? Experimental Tests of Varying Alpha," Joao Magueijo, John D. Barrow, and Haavard Bunes Sandvik, "Is It e or Is It c? Experimental Tests of Varying Alpha," Physical Letters B Physical Letters B 549 (2002): 28489. 549 (2002): 28489.

91. 91. John Smart, "Answering the Fermi Paradox: Exploring the Mechanisms ofUniversal Transcension," http://www.transhumanist.com/Smart-Fermi.htm. See also http://singuIaritywatch.com and his biography at http://www.singuIaritywatch.com/bio_johnsmart.html. John Smart, "Answering the Fermi Paradox: Exploring the Mechanisms ofUniversal Transcension," http://www.transhumanist.com/Smart-Fermi.htm. See also http://singuIaritywatch.com and his biography at http://www.singuIaritywatch.com/bio_johnsmart.html.

92. 92. James N. Gardner, James N. Gardner, Biocosm: The New Scientific Theory of Evolution: Intelligent Life Is the Architect of the Universe Biocosm: The New Scientific Theory of Evolution: Intelligent Life Is the Architect of the Universe (Maui: Inner Ocean, 2003). (Maui: Inner Ocean, 2003).

93. 93. Lee Smolin in "Smolin vs. Susskind: The Anthropic Principle," Lee Smolin in "Smolin vs. Susskind: The Anthropic Principle," Edge Edge 145, http://www.edge.org/doc.u.ments/archive/edge145.html; Lee Smolin, "Scientific Alternatives to the Anthropic Principle," http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0407213. 145, http://www.edge.org/doc.u.ments/archive/edge145.html; Lee Smolin, "Scientific Alternatives to the Anthropic Principle," http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0407213.

94. 94. Kurzweil, Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines Age of Spiritual Machines, pp. 25860.

95. 95. Gardner, Gardner, Biocosm Biocosm.

96. 96. S. W. Hawking, "Particle Creation by Black Holes," S. W. Hawking, "Particle Creation by Black Holes," Communications in Mathematical Physics Communications in Mathematical Physics 43 (1975): 199220. 43 (1975): 199220.

97. 97. The original bet is located at http://www.theory.caltech.edu/people/preskill/info_bet.html. Also see Peter Rodgers, "Hawking Loses Black Hole Bet," The original bet is located at http://www.theory.caltech.edu/people/preskill/info_bet.html. Also see Peter Rodgers, "Hawking Loses Black Hole Bet," Physics World Physics World, August 2004, http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/8/7/11.

98. 98. To arrive at those estimates Lloyd took the observed density of matter-about one hydrogen atom per cubic meter-and computed the total energy in the universe. Dividing this figure by the Planck constant, he got about 10 To arrive at those estimates Lloyd took the observed density of matter-about one hydrogen atom per cubic meter-and computed the total energy in the universe. Dividing this figure by the Planck constant, he got about 1090 cps. Seth Lloyd, "Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation," cps. Seth Lloyd, "Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation," Nature Nature 406.6799 (August 31, 2000): 104754. Electronic versions (version 3 dated February 14, 2000) available at http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043 (August 31, 2000). The following link requires a payment to access: http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v406/n6799/full/4061047a0_fs.html&content_filetype=PDF. 406.6799 (August 31, 2000): 104754. Electronic versions (version 3 dated February 14, 2000) available at http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043 (August 31, 2000). The following link requires a payment to access: http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v406/n6799/full/4061047a0_fs.html&content_filetype=PDF.

99. 99. Jacob D. Bekenstein, "Information in the Holographic Universe: Theoretical Results about Black Holes Suggest That the Universe Could Be Like a Gigantic Hologram," Jacob D. Bekenstein, "Information in the Holographic Universe: Theoretical Results about Black Holes Suggest That the Universe Could Be Like a Gigantic Hologram," Scientific American Scientific American 289.2 (August 2003): 5865, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000AF072-4891-1F0A-97AE80A84189EEDF. 289.2 (August 2003): 5865, http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000AF072-4891-1F0A-97AE80A84189EEDF.

Chapter Seven: Ich bin ein Singularitarian Ich bin ein Singularitarian 1. 1. In Jay W. Richards et al., In Jay W. Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? Ray Kurzweil vs. the Critics of Strong A.I. Are We Spiritual Machines? Ray Kurzweil vs. the Critics of Strong A.I. (Seattle: Discovery Inst.i.tute, 2002), introduction, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0502.html. (Seattle: Discovery Inst.i.tute, 2002), introduction, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0502.html.

2. 2. Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, M.D., Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman, M.D., Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (New York: Rodale Books, 2004). (New York: Rodale Books, 2004).

3. 3. Ibid. Ibid.

4. 4. Ibid. Ibid.

5. 5. Max More and Ray Kurzweil, "Max More and Ray Kurzweil on the Singularity," February 26, 2002, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0408.html. Max More and Ray Kurzweil, "Max More and Ray Kurzweil on the Singularity," February 26, 2002, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0408.html.

6. 6. Ibid. Ibid.

7. 7. Ibid. Ibid.

8. 8. Arthur Miller, Arthur Miller, After the Fall After the Fall (New York: Viking, 1964). (New York: Viking, 1964).

9. 9. From a paper read to the Oxford Philosophical Society in 1959 and then published as "Minds, Machines and G.o.del," From a paper read to the Oxford Philosophical Society in 1959 and then published as "Minds, Machines and G.o.del," Philosophy Philosophy 36 (1961): 11227. It was reprinted for the first of many times in Kenneth Sayre and Frederick Crosson, eds., 36 (1961): 11227. It was reprinted for the first of many times in Kenneth Sayre and Frederick Crosson, eds., The Modeling of Mind The Modeling of Mind (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1963), pp.25571. (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1963), pp.25571.

10. 10. Martine Rothblatt, "Biocyberethics: Should We Stop a Company from Unplugging an Intelligent Computer?" September 28, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0594.html (includes links to a Webcast and transcripts) . Martine Rothblatt, "Biocyberethics: Should We Stop a Company from Unplugging an Intelligent Computer?" September 28, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0594.html (includes links to a Webcast and transcripts) .

11. 11. Jaron Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto," Jaron Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto," Edge Edge, http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/lanier/lanier_index.html; see also Jaron Lanier, "One-Half of a Manifesto," Wired News Wired News, December 2000, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.12/lanier.html.

12. 12. Ibid. Ibid.

13. 13. Norbert Wiener, Norbert Wiener, Cybernetics: or, Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine Cybernetics: or, Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1948). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1948).

14. 14. "How Do You Persist When Your Molecules Don't?" "How Do You Persist When Your Molecules Don't?" Science and Consciousness Review Science and Consciousness Review 1.1 (June 2004), http://www.sci-con.org/articles/20040601.html. 1.1 (June 2004), http://www.sci-con.org/articles/20040601.html.

15. 15. David J. Chalmers, "Facing Up to the Problem of Consciousness," David J. Chalmers, "Facing Up to the Problem of Consciousness," Journal of Consciousness Studies Journal of Consciousness Studies 2.3 (1995): 200219, http://jamaica.u.arizona.edu/~chalmers/papers/facing.html. 2.3 (1995): 200219, http://jamaica.u.arizona.edu/~chalmers/papers/facing.html.

16. 16. Huston Smith, Huston Smith, The Sacred Unconscious The Sacred Unconscious, videotape (The Wisdom Foundation, 2001), available for sale at http://www.fonsvitae.com/sacredhuston.html.

17. 17. Jerry A. Fodor, Jerry A. Fodor, RePresentations: Philosophical Essays on the Foundations of Cognitive Science RePresentations: Philosophical Essays on the Foundations of Cognitive Science (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1981). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1981).

Chapter Eight: The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR 1. 1. Bill McKibben, "How Much Is Enough? The Environmental Movement as a Pivot Point in Human History," Harvard Seminar on Environmental Values, October 18, 2000. Bill McKibben, "How Much Is Enough? The Environmental Movement as a Pivot Point in Human History," Harvard Seminar on Environmental Values, October 18, 2000.

2. 2. In the 1960s, the U.S. government conducted an experiment in which it asked three recently graduated physics students to build a nuclear weapon using only publicly available information. The result was successful; the three students built one in about three years (http://www.pimall.com/nais/nl/n.nukes.html). Plans for how to build an atomic bomb are available on the Internet and have been published in book form by a national laboratory. In 2002, the British Ministry of Defence released measurements, diagrams, and precise details on bomb building to the Public Record Office, since removed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1932702.stm). Note that these links do not contain actual plans to build atomic weapons. In the 1960s, the U.S. government conducted an experiment in which it asked three recently graduated physics students to build a nuclear weapon using only publicly available information. The result was successful; the three students built one in about three years (http://www.pimall.com/nais/nl/n.nukes.html). Plans for how to build an atomic bomb are available on the Internet and have been published in book form by a national laboratory. In 2002, the British Ministry of Defence released measurements, diagrams, and precise details on bomb building to the Public Record Office, since removed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1932702.stm). Note that these links do not contain actual plans to build atomic weapons.

3. 3. "The John Stossel Special: You Can't Say That!" ABC News, March 23, 2000. "The John Stossel Special: You Can't Say That!" ABC News, March 23, 2000.

4. 4. There is extensive information on the Web, including military manuals, on how to build bombs, weapons, and explosives. Some of this information is erroneous, but accurate information on these topics continues to be accessible despite efforts to remove it. Congress pa.s.sed an amendment (the Feinstein Amendment, SP 419) to a Defense Department appropriations bill in June 1997, banning the dissemination of instructions on building bombs. See Anne Marie Helmenstine, "How to Build a Bomb," February 10, 2003, http://chemistry.about.com/library/weekly/aa021003a.htm. Information on toxic industrial chemicals is widely available on the Web and in libraries, as are information and tools for cultivating bacteria and viruses and techniques for creating computer viruses and hacking into computers and networks. Note that I do not provide specific examples of such information, since it might be helpful to destructive individuals and groups. I realize that even stating the availability of such information has this potential, but I feel that the benefit of open dialogue about this issue outweighs this concern. Moreover, the availability of this type of information has been widely discussed in the media and other venues. There is extensive information on the Web, including military manuals, on how to build bombs, weapons, and explosives. Some of this information is erroneous, but accurate information on these topics continues to be accessible despite efforts to remove it. Congress pa.s.sed an amendment (the Feinstein Amendment, SP 419) to a Defense Department appropriations bill in June 1997, banning the dissemination of instructions on building bombs. See Anne Marie Helmenstine, "How to Build a Bomb," February 10, 2003, http://chemistry.about.com/library/weekly/aa021003a.htm. Information on toxic industrial chemicals is widely available on the Web and in libraries, as are information and tools for cultivating bacteria and viruses and techniques for creating computer viruses and hacking into computers and networks. Note that I do not provide specific examples of such information, since it might be helpful to destructive individuals and groups. I realize that even stating the availability of such information has this potential, but I feel that the benefit of open dialogue about this issue outweighs this concern. Moreover, the availability of this type of information has been widely discussed in the media and other venues.

5. 5. Ray Kurzweil, Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1990). (Cambridge, Ma.s.s.: MIT Press, 1990).

6. 6. Ken Alibek, Ken Alibek, Biohazard Biohazard (New York: Random House, 1999). (New York: Random House, 1999).

7. 7. Ray Kurzweil, Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines The Age of Spiritual Machines (New York: Viking, 1999). (New York: Viking, 1999).

8. 8. Bill Joy, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Bill Joy, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Wired Wired, April 2000, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html.

9. 9. Handbooks on gene splicing (such as A. J. Harwood, ed., Handbooks on gene splicing (such as A. J. Harwood, ed., Basic DNA and RNA Protocols Basic DNA and RNA Protocols [Totowa, N.J.: Humana Press, 1996]) along with reagents and kits that enable gene splicing are generally available. Even if access to these materials were limited in the West, there are a large number of Russian companies that could provide equivalent materials. [Totowa, N.J.: Humana Press, 1996]) along with reagents and kits that enable gene splicing are generally available. Even if access to these materials were limited in the West, there are a large number of Russian companies that could provide equivalent materials.

10. 10. For a detailed summary site of the "Dark Winter" simulation, see "DARK WINTER: A Bioterrorism Exercise June 2001": http://www.biohazardnews.net/scen_smallpox.shtml. For a brief summary, see: http://www.homelandsecurity.org/darkwinter/index.cfm. For a detailed summary site of the "Dark Winter" simulation, see "DARK WINTER: A Bioterrorism Exercise June 2001": http://www.biohazardnews.net/scen_smallpox.shtml. For a brief summary, see: http://www.homelandsecurity.org/darkwinter/index.cfm.

11. 11. Richard Preston, "The Specter of a New and Deadlier Smallpox," Richard Preston, "The Specter of a New and Deadlier Smallpox," New York Times New York Times, October 14, 2002, available at http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/bioter/specterdeadliersmallpox.html.

12. 12. Alfred W. Crosby, Alfred W. Crosby, America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918 America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003). (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003).

13. 13. "Power from Blood Could Lead to 'Human Batteries,' " "Power from Blood Could Lead to 'Human Batteries,' " Sydney Morning Herald Sydney Morning Herald, August 4, 2003, http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/0311059849278131.html. See note 129 in chapter 5. See also S. C. Barton, J. Gallaway, and P. Atana.s.sov, "Enzymatic Biofuel Cells for Implantable and Microscale Devices," Chemical Reviews Chemical Reviews 104.10 (October 2004): 486786. 104.10 (October 2004): 486786.

14. 14. J. M. Hunt has calculated that there are 1.55 i 10 J. M. Hunt has calculated that there are 1.55 i 1019 kilograms (10 kilograms (1022 grams) of organic carbon on Earth. Based on this figure, and a.s.suming that all "organic carbon" is contained in the bioma.s.s (note that the bioma.s.s is not clearly defined, so we are taking a conservatively broad approach), we can compute the approximate number of carbon atoms as follows: grams) of organic carbon on Earth. Based on this figure, and a.s.suming that all "organic carbon" is contained in the bioma.s.s (note that the bioma.s.s is not clearly defined, so we are taking a conservatively broad approach), we can compute the approximate number of carbon atoms as follows: Average atomic weight of carbon (adjusting for isotope ratios) = 12.011.Carbon in the bioma.s.s = 1.55 i 1022 grams / 12.011 = 1.3 i 10 grams / 12.011 = 1.3 i 1021 mols. mols.1.3 i 1011i 6.02 i 1023 (Avogadro's number) = 7.8 i 10 (Avogadro's number) = 7.8 i 1044 carbon atoms. carbon atoms.J. M. Hunt, Petroleum Geochemistry and Geology Petroleum Geochemistry and Geology (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1979). (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1979).

15. 15. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "The Gray Goo Problem," March 20, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0142.html. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "The Gray Goo Problem," March 20, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/articles/art0142.html.

16. 16. "Gray Goo Is a Small Issue," Briefing Doc.u.ment, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, December 14, 2003, http://crnano.org/BD-Goo.htm; Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, "Safe Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology," Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, January 2003, http://crnano.org/safe.htm; K.Eric Drexler, "Gray Goo Is a Small Issue," Briefing Doc.u.ment, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, December 14, 2003, http://crnano.org/BD-Goo.htm; Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, "Safe Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology," Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, January 2003, http://crnano.org/safe.htm; K.Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation Engines of Creation, chapter 11, "Engines of Destruction" (New York: Anchor Books, 1986), pp. 17190, http://www.foresight.org/EOC/EOC_Chaptec11.html; Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, section 5.11, "Replicators and Public Safety" (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), pp. 19699, http://www.Moleculara.s.sembler.com/KSRM/5.11.htm. and section 6.3.1, "Molecular a.s.semblers Are Too Dangerous," pp. 2046, http://www.Moleculara.s.sembler.com/KSRM/6.3.1.htm; Foresight Inst.i.tute, "Molecular Nanotechnology Guidelines: Draft Version 3.7," June 4, 2000, http://www.foresight.org/guidelines/.

17. 17. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Gray Goo Problem" and "Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations," Zyvex preprint, April 2000, section 8.4 "Malicious Ecophagy" and section 6.0 "Ecophagic Thermal Pollution Limits (ETPL)," http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Ecophagy.html. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Gray Goo Problem" and "Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations," Zyvex preprint, April 2000, section 8.4 "Malicious Ecophagy" and section 6.0 "Ecophagic Thermal Pollution Limits (ETPL)," http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Ecophagy.html.

18. 18. Nick D. Bostrom, "Existential Risks: a.n.a.lyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards," May 29, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0194.html. Nick D. Bostrom, "Existential Risks: a.n.a.lyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards," May 29, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0194.html.

19. 19. Robert Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, 13 Days 13 Days (London: Macmillan, 1968), p. 110. (London: Macmillan, 1968), p. 110.

20. 20. In H. Putnam, "The Place of Facts in a World of Values," in D. Huff and O. Prewitt, eds., In H. Putnam, "The Place of Facts in a World of Values," in D. Huff and O. Prewitt, eds., The Nature of the Physical Universe The Nature of the Physical Universe (New York: John Wiley, 1979), p. 114. (New York: John Wiley, 1979), p. 114.

21. 21. Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism (New York: Times Books, 2004). Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism (New York: Times Books, 2004).

22. 22. Martin I. Meltzer, "Multiple Contact Dates and SARS Incubation Periods," Martin I. Meltzer, "Multiple Contact Dates and SARS Incubation Periods," Emerging Infectious Diseases Emerging Infectious Diseases 10.2 (February 2004), http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol10no2/03-0426-G1.htm. 10.2 (February 2004), http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol10no2/03-0426-G1.htm.

23. 23. Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes Using Digest and Discharge Protocol," Zyvex preprint, March 2001, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Microbivores.htm, and "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes," Robert A. Freitas Jr., "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes Using Digest and Discharge Protocol," Zyvex preprint, March 2001, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/Microbivores.htm, and "Microbivores: Artificial Mechanical Phagocytes," Foresight Update Foresight Update no. 44, March 31, 2001, pp. 1113, http://www.imm.org/Reports/Rep025.html. no. 44, March 31, 2001, pp. 1113, http://www.imm.org/Reports/Rep025.html.

24. 24. Max More, "The Proactionary Principle," May 2004, http://www.maxmore.com/proactionary.htm and http://www.extropy.org/proactionaryprinciple.htm. More summarizes the proactionary principle as follows: Max More, "The Proactionary Principle," May 2004, http://www.maxmore.com/proactionary.htm and http://www.extropy.org/proactionaryprinciple.htm. More summarizes the proactionary principle as follows: 1. 1. People's freedom to innovate technologically is valuable to humanity. The burden of proof therefore belongs to those who propose restrictive measures. All proposed measures should be closely scrutinized. People's freedom to innovate technologically is valuable to humanity. The burden of proof therefore belongs to those who propose restrictive measures. All proposed measures should be closely scrutinized.

2. 2. Evaluate risk according to available science, not popular perception, and allow for common reasoning biases. Evaluate risk according to available science, not popular perception, and allow for common reasoning biases.

3. 3. Give precedence to ameliorating known and proven threats to human health and environmental quality over acting against hypothetical risks. Give precedence to ameliorating known and proven threats to human health and environmental quality over acting against hypothetical risks.

4. 4. Treat technological risks on the same basis as natural risks; avoid underweighting natural risks and overweighting human-technological risks. Fully account for the benefits of technological advances. Treat technological risks on the same basis as natural risks; avoid underweighting natural risks and overweighting human-technological risks. Fully account for the benefits of technological advances.

5. 5. Estimate the lost opportunities of abandoning a technology, and take into account the costs and risks of subst.i.tuting other credible options, carefully considering widely distributed effects and follow-on effects. Estimate the lost opportunities of abandoning a technology, and take into account the costs and risks of subst.i.tuting other credible options, carefully considering widely distributed effects and follow-on effects.

6. 6. Consider restrictive measures only if the potential impact of an activity has both significant probability and severity. In such cases, if the activity also generates benefits, discount the impacts according to the feasibility of adapting to the adverse effects. If measures to limit technological advance do appear justified, ensure that the extent of those measures is proportionate to the extent of the probable effects. Consider restrictive measures only if the potential impact of an activity has both significant probability and severity. In such cases, if the activity also generates benefits, discount the impacts according to the feasibility of adapting to the adverse effects. If measures to limit technological advance do appear justified, ensure that the extent of those measures is proportionate to the extent of the probable effects.

7. 7. When choosing among measures to restrict technological innovation, prioritize decision criteria as follows: Give priority to risks to human and other intelligent life over risks to other species; give non-lethal threats to human health priority over threats limited to the environment (within reasonable limits); give priority to immediate threats over distant threats; prefer the measure with the highest expectation value by giving priority to more certain over less certain threats, and to irreversible or persistent impacts over transient impacts. When choosing among measures to restrict technological innovation, prioritize decision criteria as follows: Give priority to risks to human and other intelligent life over risks to other species; give non-lethal threats to human health priority over threats limited to the environment (within reasonable limits); give priority to immediate threats over distant threats; prefer the measure with the highest expectation value by giving priority to more certain over less certain threats, and to irreversible or persistent impacts over transient impacts.

25. 25. Martin Rees, Martin Rees, Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century-on Earth and Beyond Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century-on Earth and Beyond (New York: Basic Books, 2003). (New York: Basic Books, 2003).

26. 26. Scott Shane, Scott Shane, Dismantling Utopia: How Information Ended the Soviet Union Dismantling Utopia: How Information Ended the Soviet Union (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee, 1994); see also the review by James A. Dorn at http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj16n2-7.html. (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee, 1994); see also the review by James A. Dorn at http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj16n2-7.html.

27. 27. See George DeWan, "Diary of a Colonial Housewife," See George DeWan, "Diary of a Colonial Housewife," Newsday Newsday, 2005, for one account of the difficulty of human life a couple of centuries ago: http://www.newsday.com/community/guide/lihistory/ny-history-hs331a,0,6101197.story.

28. 28. Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel, "Broken Limits to Life Expectancy," Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel, "Broken Limits to Life Expectancy," Science Science 296.5570 (May 10,2002): 102931. 296.5570 (May 10,2002): 102931.

29. 29. Steve Bowman and Helit Barel, Weapons of Ma.s.s Destruction: The Terrorist Threat, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, December 8, 1999, http://www.cnie.org/nle/crsreports/international/inter-75.pdf. Steve Bowman and Helit Barel, Weapons of Ma.s.s Destruction: The Terrorist Threat, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, December 8, 1999, http://www.cnie.org/nle/crsreports/international/inter-75.pdf.

30. 30. Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "Creating Friendly AI 1.0, The a.n.a.lysis and Design of Benevolent Goal Architectures" (2001), The Singularity Inst.i.tute, http://www.singinst.org/CFAI/; Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "What Is Friendly AI?" May 3, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0172.html. Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "Creating Friendly AI 1.0, The a.n.a.lysis and Design of Benevolent Goal Architectures" (2001), The Singularity Inst.i.tute, http://www.singinst.org/CFAI/; Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "What Is Friendly AI?" May 3, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0172.html.

31. 31. Ted Kaczynski, "The Unabomber's Manifesto," May 14, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.netlmeme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0182.html. Ted Kaczynski, "The Unabomber's Manifesto," May 14, 2001, http://www.KurzweilAI.netlmeme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0182.html.

32. 32. Bill McKibben, Bill McKibben, Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age (New York: Times Books, 2003). (New York: Times Books, 2003).

33. 33. Kaczynski, "The Unabomber's Manifesto." Kaczynski, "The Unabomber's Manifesto."

34. 34. Foresight Inst.i.tute and IMM, "Foresight Guidelines on Molecular Nanotechnology," February 21, 1999, http://www.foresight.org/guidelines/current.html; Christine Peterson, "Molecular Manufacturing: Societal Implications of Advanced Nanotechnology," April 9, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0557.html; Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, "Safe Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology," January 28, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0547.html; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "The Gray Goo Problem," KurzweilAI.net, 20 March 2002, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0142.html. Foresight Inst.i.tute and IMM, "Foresight Guidelines on Molecular Nanotechnology," February 21, 1999, http://www.foresight.org/guidelines/current.html; Christine Peterson, "Molecular Manufacturing: Societal Implications of Advanced Nanotechnology," April 9, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0557.html; Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, "Safe Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology," January 28, 2003, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0547.html; Robert A. Freitas Jr., "The Gray Goo Problem," KurzweilAI.net, 20 March 2002, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0142.html.